Mark Cuban's Investment Advice for 2006

It's worth considering Mark Cuban's financial advice for 2006, since he's made a lot of money for himself and some of his investors.

Mark Cuban v. The New York Times

I wondered what that long, weird article by about bloggers by Katherine Seelye in today's NY Times business section was all about, so I checked out Mark Cuban's blog, since there was some cryptic commentary buried in the Times story, and they usually bury the lead. Sure enough, Cuban had a lot to say. Which leads to the question: Is the New York Times having a nervous breakdown?

And more--might Mark Cuban bid to buy the NY Times company, a la Charles Foster Kane?

Full disclosure: I actually made some money investing in Mark Cuban's Broadcast.com when it was acquired by Yahoo!

Tube Strike Hits London

We got a nice surprise New Year's Day call from a couple of our friends in London--by cell phone, they were sitting in Joe Allen's--who told us that there was a big Tube strike in London, but that everyone was taking it in stride. This story from The Independent has details.

Curiously, one of the friends on the phone had just been in New York on the eve of the Christmas MTA strike...

World Faces Anti-Semitic Tsunami

Speaking to the BBC, British Chief Rabbi Sir Jonathan Sacks warned that the rapid spread of Islamist extremism threatens to flood the world with violence and hatred on a scale not seen since World War II:

"This is all a kind of tsunami of anti-Semitism which is taking place a long way from this country but (of) which Europe seems unaware," he said.

Here's a link to the Chief Rabbi's London website

Roger L. Simon on Spielberg's Munich

Simon takes apart the film, from the vantage point of a professional screenwriter, here.

And here's a link to Bret Stephens' Wall Street Journal review, mentioned by Simon.

Ukraine Gas Crisis Worsens

Russia's dramatic price hike for gas sold to the Ukraine is sending New Year's shock waves across Europe.

This is where the "free market" rhetoric of the EU and US is running into the "democracy" rhetoric of the Orange revolution. From the Russian point of view, it surely looks like this: Why shouldn't Russia charge what the market will bear, if Ukraine is no longer an ally deserving of subsidy? And why shouldn't the EU and US pay the price difference, if Ukraine is valuable to them? That is, let the EU and US subsidize Russia, rather than Ukraine?

The response--predictable--of the State Department and EU has been a little ham-handed and Cold War-like, to say the least. First, because Russia made a point of honoring all its contracts with the EU, shipping the gas paid for by EU countries. It is Ukraine that has diverted gas, reducing EU supplies, not Russia. Second, because the EU and US are paying for their ill-considered Central Asian policies--Russia bought up all the Turkmen gas that previously went to Ukraine before launching its price hike. Quite simply, the EU and US have no alternative cheaper supply to offer Ukraine at this time.

So, if it is just a business matter, Russia actually is in the right. However, if the Ukraine question is a matter of weakening Russia, then by raising gas prices to the Ukraine, Russia has exposed the political agenda of the EU and US. Either Ukraine will have to pay the increase, or the US and EU will have to do it for them. Neither the EU or US are in a place where they can threaten Russia militarily or economically.

Right now, unless there is some unforeseen development, hiking Ukraine's gas prices looks like a win-win move for Russia...

UPDATE: More on this crisis from the BBC.

UPDATE: It looks like this gas crisis might lead to Russia and Ukraine both joining the WTO.

Happy New Year!

This website even plays Auld Lang Syne...

Israel Celebrates Hannukah--and Novi God...

Haaretz reports on Russian holiday celebrations influence in the Jewish State:

While diners at posh Herzliya Pituah eatery Odeon are sitting down to their New Year's feast of goose liver and quince, the Lesovoy family will be sitting around the table in Ashdod, enjoying traditional kholodetz (veal in aspic) and homemade salads. When the children get up in the morning, they will find presents under a decorated tree left by the Russian Santa Claus, Grandfather Frost, known as Ded Moroz.

The only thing these two celebrations will have in common is the champagne they plan to drink at midnight. For the children, 9-year-old Hanna, 7-year-old Lev and 3-year-old Ela, the new year couldn't arrive at a better time. A week after collecting Hanukkah gelt, they also get presents for Novi God, the Russian new year.

Tom Delay's Russian Connection

Today's Washington Post has this fascinating article about how democracy works in the US Capitol:

The U.S. Family Network, a public advocacy group that operated in the 1990s with close ties to Rep. Tom DeLay and claimed to be a nationwide grass-roots organization, was funded almost entirely by corporations linked to embattled lobbyist Jack Abramoff, according to tax records and former associates of the group.

During its five-year existence, the U.S. Family Network raised $2.5 million but kept its donor list secret. The list, obtained by The Washington Post, shows that $1 million of its revenue came in a single 1998 check from a now-defunct London law firm whose former partners would not identify the money's origins.

Two former associates of Edwin A. Buckham, the congressman's former chief of staff and the organizer of the U.S. Family Network, said Buckham told them the funds came from Russian oil and gas executives. Abramoff had been working closely with two such Russian energy executives on their Washington agenda, and the lobbyist and Buckham had helped organize a 1997 Moscow visit by DeLay (R-Tex.).

The former president of the U.S. Family Network said Buckham told him that Russians contributed $1 million to the group in 1998 specifically to influence DeLay's vote on legislation the International Monetary Fund needed to finance a bailout of the collapsing Russian economy.

Austria's Official Art Embarrasses Government

Pictures like this, part of an Austrian government-funded art project on billboards in Vienna, have been taken down after news about them embarrassed the nation's leaders in the context of Austria's presidency of the European Union.

To me the pose looks remarkably like Nazi propaganda--the targets after all are the USA, Britain, and France. At least we know what the Austrians really think...

First David Irving in jail, now these works of art removed from public places--where are Europe's free-speech, anti-censorship activists? (ht lgf)

Washington Post Publishes America's Secret Plan to Invade Canada

Peter Carlson has the story:

Invading Canada won't be like invading Iraq: When we invade Canada, nobody will be able to grumble that we didn't have a plan.

The United States government does have a plan to invade Canada. It's a 94-page document called "Joint Army and Navy Basic War Plan -- Red," with the word SECRET stamped on the cover. It's a bold plan, a bodacious plan, a step-by-step plan to invade, seize and annex our neighbor to the north. It goes like this:

First, we send a joint Army-Navy overseas force to capture the port city of Halifax, cutting the Canadians off from their British allies.

Then we seize Canadian power plants near Niagara Falls, so they freeze in the dark.

Then the U.S. Army invades on three fronts -- marching from Vermont to take Montreal and Quebec, charging out of North Dakota to grab the railroad center at Winnipeg, and storming out of the Midwest to capture the strategic nickel mines of Ontario.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy seizes the Great Lakes and blockades Canada's Atlantic and Pacific ports.

At that point, it's only a matter of time before we bring these Molson-swigging, maple-mongering Zamboni drivers to their knees! Or, as the official planners wrote, stating their objective in bold capital letters: "ULTIMATELY TO GAIN COMPLETE CONTROL."

Michael Crichton's State of Fear

I found this link to what looked like a PowerPoint presentation critical of the environmental science behind global warming on Roger L. Simon's blog today, and wondered if the Michael Crichton credited as the author was the same person as the best-selling novelist and Harvard Medical School graduate. So I followed the links until I ended up at the official Michael Crichton webpage, which told me that the conflict over global warming is one part of the argument of his new novel, State of Fear. Crichton has a link to a speech he gave called "Aliens Cause Global Warming," which I found really amusing--but there were so many copyright warnings, that I'm afraid to quote from it here, even though I believe I would be protected under "fair use" doctrine. So you'll have to click on the link in the headline to see for yourself.

Anyhow, it turns out that Crichton is among those who question the science behind global warming, and who argue that bad politics are driving scientific policy in dangerous directions. He compares the current global warming scare to American eugenics policy in the 1920s and Soviet Lysenko-ism in the 1930s.

I was a Crichton fan as a teenager, and so found this a fascinating--and unexpected--position for a Harvard alumnus and Hollywood producer and screenwriter to take. It's not something he's doing to become more popular. And he certainly doesn't need the money, so it is highly unlikely that he's some corporate shill. He must believe that the environmental lobby is on the wrong track when it comes to global warming.

If Crichton is right, then the evidence for the Kyoto protocol may be nothing more than another Y2K scare.

Belgravia Dispatch on Britain's Law Lords Rejection of Torture

There is sanity to be found in the torture debate in the UK, as Britain's Law Lords banned torture. Belgravia Dispatch has the decision and comments.

Konstantin's Russian Blog on Ukranian-Russian Gas Negotiations

Konstantin has a Russian perspective on the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine. He seems to be saying now that Ukraine has left Mother Russia's embrace, the country will have to pay pay the price--some 3 billion dollars a year for Russian natural gas...

Nicholas Sarkozy Podcasting From Paris

Yannick Laclau has the story. The more I hear about Sarkozy, the better I feel about France...

UPDATE: Here's a link to another video blog with Sarkozy's interview.

Central Asia's Second Chance by Martha Brill Olcott

Martha Brill Olcott's valuable new survey of Central Asia has appeared at a tricky time. Clearly, the study of Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan was started with an optimistic spirit. It looks like a guidebook that could have been used for businesspeople, academics, students, and even tourists to the region that fills the center of the Eurasian land mass, Mackinder's famous "pivot point" of world history.

The Andijan violence of 2005 has clearly been a pivot point for regional geopolitics, and perhaps for President Bush's Global War on Terror. In the aftermath of what the Uzbek government declared was a terrorist attack on a major population center, the US and EU condemned the government for "excessive force," demanding an international investigation. China and Russia, on the other hand, backed authoritarian leader Islam Karimov's decision to fire on armed demonstrators holding hostages, who had earlier seized several government buildings and set fire to movie theatres. To answer riot and rebellion with Napoleon's "whiff of grapeshot" seemed logical to the East, if not to the West.

This split had spillover effects. In its aftermath, Karimov ordered troops out of the US base in Uzbekistan and signed an alliance with Russia. It marked a geopolitical defeat for the United States, and the first instance where Bush's "democracy" policy took precedence over military requirements for the Global War on Terror. Deprived of its base in Uzbekistan, the US was then squeezed by Kyrgyzstan, which asked for some $200 million dollars to keep open Ganci airbase--100 times what the US had been paying previously.

Round One: Russia and China, by a knockout.

Olcott's book is fascinating, as much for what she does not say, as for what she does. For while she states that "Blame Lies with the Region's Leaders," (p.234), the data in her book equally support an alternative hypothesis which goes unstated: American policies have not only harmed Central Asia, they have damanged the strategic interests of the United States.

Evidence for this hypothesis can be found in remarks scattered throughout the text, like clues to a Sherlock Holms mystery. For example:

For a certain group of policy makers, those concerned with monitoring the democratic progress of these governments, the leaders in charge of these states have effectively become the enemy, men whose departure from political life was viewed as a good thing for their populations . . . The US foreign assistance strategy has led to much ill will on all sides, without substantially enhancing the capacity of either government or opposition to govern in a democratic fashion.(240)

Olcott's book seems to end suddenly--without a customary concluding chapter on p. 244. Instead of tying together loose ends, pages 245-387 present is a mass of raw data in appendices containing charts and graphs; footnotes with fascinating tidbits, and a valuable index.

This silence about her key message seems very Central Asian. If one digs through the data sets, one comes up with a picture of a region that is closer to the one presented by its authoritarian leaders than the one found in reports by NGOs such as Human Rights Watch or the International Crisis Group.

Central Asia is not poor. In fact, the region's economies are growing. There is considerable foreign investment, especially in oil, gas, and mining sectors.

Central Asia is not backwards. In fact, the countries enjoy literacy rates higher than the USA.

What is most striking is Oclott's evidence that Central Asian leaders have not invented the extremist Islamist threat in order to maintain power. The threat from extremism is real. Like Thailand during the Vietnam War, these countries have adopted authoritarian policies to prevent conflicts raging around them from exploding among their populations.

And Olcott almost says this--with caveats blaming Uzbek leadership failures--in a section called "Uzbekistan: Central Asia's Frontline State." Where she points out this little reported fact: "Uzbekistan was the only Central Asian state to join the US-led coalition that invaded Iraq, despite the fact that this damaged its relations with Russia and China."(177) In other words, attacks on Uzbekistan--including Andijan--were attacks on the US-led coalition.

There is more detail in Appendix 13, listing both official and unofficial Islamic organizations--some of which have documented ties to Al Qaeda in addition to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, for example the "Jamaat of Central Asia Mujahideen." This group, according to Olcott, "remains focused on terror acts in Central Asia." She also notes that Tajikistan's "Baiat" (covenant) has perpetrated terror attacks against both non-Muslims and "Muslim grops that it considers too moderate."

This is a book that I am sure to turn to again and again. It is a treasure trove of information that is useful to anyone attempting to understand why what is happening in small countries that are far, far away has relevance to the lives of ordinary Americans, and for improving chances for world peace.

Andrei Malaev-Babel as Isaac Babel

After last night's one-man show by Andrei Malaev-Babel as his grandfather, the legendary Russia writer Isaac Babel, audience members lined up for the actor's autograph. Malaev-Babel's performance of Babel: How It Was Done in Odessa took place in a very small room that was filled to the rafters with Russian teachers attending the national American Association of Teachers of European Languanges convention in Washington. The room was so full that I had to share a small shelf with a teacher from Boston, who told me she had flown down just for the show. As we were pressed into our little box, I thought of the old Russian saying: "Close together, but no offense."

The audience seemed a little disappointed that the main event was perfomed in English (due to a misunderstanding, apparently), though it certainly made it easier to follow with my basic/intermediate language skills. Malaev-Babel redeemed himself at the end with a short recitation in Russian, that was a big hit.

The stories in English were Di Grasso from Stories 1925-1938; How It Was Done in Odessa from The Odessa Stories; and Guy de Maupassant also from Stories 1925-1938. The final scened in Russian was set in a Jewish cemetery, and a meditation on death. It received warm applause.

Malaev-Babel's performance is a very Russian-style evening, evidence of his training at the Schukin School of the Vakhtangov Theatre Institute in Moscow. He takes Stanislavsky and Danchenko's commitment to artistic truth as his own. For some Americans, the style might seem a bit slow, but to this viewer it seemed just right--free of cheap theatrics and antics that clutter up too many stages nowadays. It was a classical rendering of a classic set of tales. The tragic fate of Babel, shot on Stalin's orders, was known to this audience, which gave the evening a poignant and soulful quality. And Babel's Jewish themes made for some appropriate Hannukah entertainment.

In the question and answer session afterwards, Malaev-Babel came across as a charming and thoughtful actor-director, dedicated to his art, his family legacy, and to truth. When asked how come he went into directing, he modestly answered that it was his teacher's choice. "You are too smart to be an actor," he was told, "actors are dumb." Malaev-Babel said he disagreed with that viewpoint, but he went ahead and became a director anyhow.

Next for Malaev-Babel's Stanislavsky Theatre Studio--Dostoevsky.

My Phish Story

Over the Christmas holiday in Florida, I got "Phished." I never heard the term before, and learned it when I called American Express to notify them that I had--incredibly stupidly--given personal information on a fake eBay website, in response to what I quickly discovered was a phony eBay suspension letter. This is part of how they pull an identity theft. It turns out that when phony spam--called "spoof"--hooks a sucker, the sucker has been "fished". "Oh, I'm so sorry," said the operator, "you got fished." Who then told me about a new American Express identity protection insurance plan that I could get for six dollars a month, that would pay up to $15,000 in legal expenses.

I had notified eBay immediately, via a LiveAdvisor popup email exchange.And eBay were pretty good about it. They referred me to the eBay identity theft webpage. I stopped filling out the phony form before putting down my credit card numbers or bank accounts, but unfortunately did give out my social, driver's license, and some other personal info. To a fraudster! Ebay said they thought they may have wanted to use my account to order thousands of dollars of merchandise to someone else, and that they could be stopped without closing the account. We'll see. I got an email from their security office later, to confirm my report, very quickly. After all, their business surely would collapse if anyone could just steal anyone else's account...

So, I went down the eBay checklist. I notified the local police in Winter Park, in order to file a police report. When I called , they wanted to send a cop to our house, but it seemed to me that it might ruin the Christmas Cheer, so instead I went down to what I thought was the station house. Now, Winter Park, Florida is a classy place. So classy that the police station is unmarked. I drove around for a while until I realzed that it looks like an ordinary office building. It was nighttime, the front door was locked. So I picked up the phone by the door, and then got buzzed into the entrance. Where I sat and waited for about ten minutes in a nice Spanish-style office park lobby, until a patrolman emerged from somewhere. He didn't seem too excited. He said he used eBay himself. Told me not to cancel my eBay account, just change my password. And don't go crazy getting a new social or driver's license, either. The policeman, who didn't seem to feel my pain, said that until something was charged to my credit card, no big crime had really been committed. I told him that I thought that fraud had been committed, someone pretending to be eBay had gotten my personal information under false pretenses. He said anyone could get the information that I gave out from a number of places for $40 (I didn't know that...). So long as I didn't give out my credit card numbers, or bank accounts, which I didn't, they probably wouldn't be interested. Too much trouble, he indicated. I hoped he was right. He did agree to give me an "event number" but not to file a full police report. How would you find them anyway, he concluded, they're probably in the United Kingdom. Now, why he thought it was a British gang, I don't know, except that a local Orlando barber shop owner had just been arrested for wire fraud. They have a pretty laid-back attitude in Winter Park. But I guess at least so far, the policeman was right.

So, that's how I came to call American Express, and learn that I had been caught in a "phishing" scam.

In any case, when I got home, the people I were staying with laughed and laughed. They had heard about it on TV, someone had reported on a similar scheme with Pay Pal. And the person I was travelling with had already deleted her spam. And how did they get this information about you? my hostess asked. "I gave it to them." More laughter.

Of course, I went through the recommended eBay steps, notified the relevant parties, changed my passwords, and was sure to file a "fraud alert" with the credit agencies. That's so anyone trying to open a phony bank account, get a credit card, or buy something on eBay--"One guy bought a house with a phony identity," my AmEx operator told me--would be double-checked.

It may have been a coincidence, but when I got to the airport to take my flight home a couple of days later, I was pulled aside by security, who noted that my boarding pass had a big "S" for special search (not "sucker", I hoped). I was guided to a special area where a team went through my bags as I was patted down and frisked by a man with rubber gloves.

Locking the barn door after the horse is gone, here's a link to the Federal Trade Commission's helpful website How Not to Get Hooked in a Phishing Scam.

Hannukah in Santa Monica

From our Believe It or Not Department: Over Christmas, we heard Garrison Keillor sing this 1963Tom Lehrer classic on NPR. By some incredible coincidence, opening the mail at home today, I found that my father sent me Lerhrer's song (and some others) as a Hannukah present...Happy Hannukah, Dad!

You can find a complete collection of Tom Lehrer song lyrics at this website.

The American Thinker on Edward Rothstein on Stephen Spielberg

I read Edward Rothstein's excellent NY Times article dissecting Spielberg's Munich on the airplane yesterday, while flying home. He's nailed Spielberg--and collaborators such as "playwright" Tony Kushner (who once yelled at me at a sparsely attended pro-NEA rally when I tried to interview him)--dead to rights.