AEI Hosts Arab Dissidents and Reformers

This morning I attended a fascinating series of panels at the American Enterprise Institute, called
Dissent and Reform in the Arab World: Dissidents and Reformers from the Arab World Speak Out. It was hosted by AEI's Danielle Pletka and Michael Rubin, and featured Egyptian Saad Eddin Ibrahim, Tunisian Neila Charchour Hachicha, Libyan Mohamel Eljahmi, Yemenites Ali Saif Hassan and Hafez Al-Bukari (a famous Uzbek name, I wondered about his family origins, perhaps Uzbeks in Saudi Arabia?), Kuwaiti Rola Dashti, and Iraqi Kanan Makiya.

Strangely, there was no representative from Saudi Arabia on the panel--though my new acquaitance, Dr. Ali Alyami was in the audience, and asked a question.

If I had to characterize the speakers, I'd say Pletka and Rubin gave good introductions, and Kanan Makiya some excellent closing remarks about the difference between dissidents and reformers. Most outstanding speakers were Rola Dashti, who declared:

Yes, with our will, determination, perseverance and support of friends like you we won our first battle against the ideology of radical Islamists, our dream came true and things started to change...But winning the battle is not enough, we need to win the war against these radical Islamists who not only oppress women, but also embrace extremism as a mode of thinking, enclosure as a mode of life, and terrorism as a mode to conflict resolution...

And Nelia Charchour Hachicha, who pointed out:

Therefore, under long-lasting autorcarcies free elections do not offer a 'democratic' solution since the electoral tool becomes a demagogical tool...Now, pacifying first the Moslem societies to allow free elections seems to me the right way to obtain real democratic elections. But! Under the imperative condition that we first get an open political context to build a free independent civil society.

The most disturbing presentation came from Saad Eddin Ibrahim, who had been jailed by Hosni Mubarak and freed only due to American pressure. He basically appeared as an advocate for the Muslim Brotherhood, arguing that the Muslim Brothers could become the Arab world's equivalent of European Christian Democrats during the Cold War. Neither of the Arab women panelists were convinced, and neither was I. He seemed to be, at best, a sincerely misguided liberal, or at worst a liar and a con man.

For during the Cold War, Christian Democrats shared an anti-Communist ideological agenda with Western liberals. But today, the Muslim Brotherhood shares an anti-Western ideological agenda with Islamist terrorists. The correct analogy would be to European Communist parties during the Cold War. American strategy--correctly, IMHO--sought to exclude them from governments, not to empower them, because they were on the side of America's adversaries. The same policy would be wise to follow with the Muslim Brothers. To answer President Bush's famous question, they are "against us." Helping them to win elections--as some member of the audience from the National Endowment for Democracy stated the US government has been doing--is suicidal as well as dumb.

In the end, the event well and truly produced a great deal of both heat and light, and the AEI is to be commended for actually hosting a vigorous and exciting debate. A good next step, if AEI is serious about reform and dissidence in the Arab world, might be to add a panel on the question of democracy and human rights in Saudi Arabia, and invite Dr. Alyami to participate...

More on the Abu Hamza Trial

From The London Time's Sean O'Neill:

TWO very different Abu Hamzas appeared at the Old Bailey yesterday as the trial of the former imam of Finsbury Park mosque was shown video recordings of the radical cleric preaching.

Abu Hamza al-Masri sat in silence in the dock watching a much more animated and younger version of himself. The on-screen Abu Hamza was passionate, gesticulating with the stumps of his amputated arms as he emphasised the plight of Muslims around the world, the duty to fight the unbeliever and the evils of democracy.

This Abu Hamza emphasised the need for young Muslim men to train for jihad and to identify targets including the law courts, banks and brothels — all of them symbols of corrupt “kuffar countries” like Britain.

Living in such a country was, the angry figure in the flickering video said, little better than visiting a lavatory. Clearly visible on the screen was Abu Hamza’s hook. He does not wear the hook in court and this was the first time the jurors had seen it.

Abu Hamza, 47, denies all the charges on a 15-count indictment made up of nine offences of soliciting to murder, four of inciting racial hatred, one of possessing offensive recordings and one of possessing a terrorist manual, the Encyclopedia of the Afghani Jihad. The key evidence in the prosecution case against him is contained in video and audio tapes of sermons and lectures delivered by Abu Hamza between 1997 and 2000. The first of these to be aired was recorded seven years ago at a public meeting in Whitechapel, East London.

Abu Hamza’s lecture began slowly, condemning Muslims for enjoying the comforts of life in Britain — cookers, fridges, television and takeaway chicken — while their brothers and sisters suffered around the world. But as he warmed to his theme — the establishment of the Khilafah, or Islamic state — his voice reverberated in the wood-panelled courtroom.

Abu Hamza spoke in rapid-fire broken English. It was stream of consciousness, delivered over a period of more than two hours. He rambled and ranted, dictated and demanded, issued orders and captivated his listeners. Occasionally, there were flashes of humour; he mocked the former UN Secretary-General with a joke from The Fast Show, calling him “Boutros, Boutros, Boutros Ghali ”. The sound quality was poor but the judge, jurors and lawyers had a typed transcript. The prosecution alleges that the meaning of Abu Hamza’s words is unambiguous and amounts to encouraging his followers to commit murder.

Human Rights Watch Reports on Saudi Arabia

I was struck by how feeble current Human Rights Watch reports on Saudi Arabia seem, when compared to their extensive campaign against Uzbekistan. No calls for international investigations, no calls to ban Saudi officials from entry to the EU or USA, no calls for boycotts, no demands to break military alliances, and so on.

Yet Saudi Arabia is the main funder of Islamist terror, in addition to being home to a terrorist regime that oppresses non-Wahabi Muslims (I learned yesterday that even Sufi Muslims in the Hejaz must practice their traditional faith in secrecy), allows slavery, oppresses women, and so on.

By any reasonable standard Uzbekistan is freer than Saudi Arabia. So why the double standard at Human Rights Watch? How exactly does the organization select its campaign targets? Is there any transparency to the process? Why not more pressure on Saudi Arabia, right now?

The Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia

Lunched today with Saudi dissident Dr. Ali Alyami, who asked tough questions of Condoleeza Rice at the Heritage Foundation a little while ago. He was passionate and impressive (reminded me a little of my anti-Castro filmmaker friend Agustin Blazquez). Dr. Alyami referred me to the website of his organization The Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Saudi Arabia. He had so much to say, I encouraged him to write a book about how to bring democracy and human rights to Saudi Arabia. If he ever does, for what its worth, I'd plug it on this blog...

Abu Hamza Trial Continues

The New York Times ran this dull Alan Cowell story, haven't seen the paper yet to find out what page. My guess is that it's not page one, even though Hamza's followers were part of the plot to destroy the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on 9/11--and the US is seeking extradition to try him for crimes here in America. I do know the Washington Post buried Kevin Sullivan's account of the trial on the bottom of page A 18.

The British press corps is on top of the story, though. Here's a link to the BBC account of today's events, Channel 4 News , Reuters , the Daily Telegraph , the Guardian , the Times of London , the Financial Times, the Sun and the Daily Mail.

Abu Hamza Trial Begins in London

Here's The Guardian's account:

The Muslim cleric Abu Hamza encouraged his followers to murder "non-believers", the Old Bailey heard today at the start of his trial.

The preacher singled out Jews, proclaiming in one of his sermons that "Hitler was sent into the world" because of their "treachery, blasphemy and filth", the jury was told. Mr Hamza also claimed that Jews controlled the west and must be removed from the Earth, the court heard.

Opening the prosecution case, David Perry told the jury they would hear tapes and watch video of the 47-year-old cleric "preaching hatred".

Mr Perry said that Mr Hamza told his followers that that "as part of the religious duty to fight in the cause of Allah, it was part of the religious duty to kill".

Mr Hamza, 47, from west London, faces a total of 15 race hate charges, including nine charges under the Offences Against the Person Act 1861 alleging he solicited others at public meetings to murder Jews and other non-Muslims. He denies all the charges.

Mr Perry said that Mr Hamza was a well-known preacher or speaker in the Muslim community who frequently gave talks at meetings and delivered sermons at the Finsbury Park mosque in north London before it closed in 2003.

The barrister said the "prosecution's case, in a sentence, was that that the defendant ... was preaching murder and hatred in these talks".

Mr Perry said Mr Hamza possessed a book called the Encyclopaedia of Afghani Jihad, which ran to 10 volumes and described how to make explosives and also "explained assassination methods and ... how a terrorist unit, or a military unit, can most effectively operate".

Mr Perry said: "What the prosecution say about that encyclopaedia is that it was a manual for terrorism. It was a manual that would assist and be designed to assist any person who is likely to be engaged in preparing or actually carrying out a terrorist act."

Mr Hamza faces a charge relating to the encyclopaedia under section 58 of the Terrorism Act, which accuses him of possession of a document, which contained information "of a kind likely to be useful to a person committing or preparing an act of terrorism".

He also faces four charges under the Public Order Act 1986 of "using threatening, abusive or insulting words or behaviour with the intention of stirring up racial hatred".

A further charge alleges Mr Hamza was in possession of video and audio recordings, which he intended to distribute to stir up racial hatred. It was some of those cassettes that formed the basis of the prosecution's case, Mr Perry said.

The lawyer said: "You will hear the tapes and we will hear that the defendant, Sheikh Abu Hamza, encouraged his listeners, whether they were an audience at a private meeting or a congregation at the mosque, to believe that it was part of a religious duty to fight in the cause of Allah, God, and as part of the religious duty to fight in the cause of Allah, it was part of the religious duty to kill."

It will be interesting to see how the New York Times and Washington Post cover this case...

The Last Hurrah

Here's another good film for your Netflix queue, John Ford's 1958 classic The Last Hurrah. I had seen it years ago, and remembered liking Spencer Tracy. But I hadn't remembered how funny and touching it was. Maybe because I am older--and have seen a little bit more. I really enjoyed the whole Irish immigrant angle, which I had forgotten, especially when Spencer Tracy barges into the restricted "Plymouth Club" to confront a group of Yankee bluebloods having lunch in their private dining room. All sorts of great acting, and supporting players Lionel Barrymore, Pat O'Brian, John Carradine. A laugh and a tear. And lines to remember, like: "You know what America's greatest spectator sport is? Politics."

I would have liked to have had this film when I taught American culture in Russia.

The Unofficial Chopin Homepage

I found this tribute to Chopin while following up on Jerzy Antczak's film version of the composer's life. It has lots of interesting links, plus MIDI versions of his music.

How to Write a Novel in a Year

Louise Doughty tells you how to do it, in this article from London's Telegraph.

For those of us who come from decidedly non-literary backgrounds, there is something wonderful about being a writer - all the shallow stuff we are supposed to despise; the café talk, the book launches, the scanning of literary pages feeling guiltily gratified when a friend gets a bad review. Forget for a moment the loneliness, paranoia and financial insecurity, Being a Writer is great fun.

But there is a catch. You have to write. This is something that would-be writers sometimes appear not to have grasped , , ,

Doughty also has a place to post your writing, for others to read your work-in-progress. (ht This 'n That)

The Alito Confirmation--What's It All About?

Seems like some sort of strange charade, people going through the motions of an inexplicable marathon ritual. Unless there are some dramatic developments, people may ask what all the fuss was about. I'm not following it very closely right now--but Heather MacDonald is, and published an interesting oped about Alito's significance, in the Wall Street Journal today.

A Russian (and Baltic) New Year's Scrapbook

You can see a lot of nice pictures of Estonia and Russia at New Year's over on Scraps of Moscow.

360 Degrees of the Great Wall of China

I'm really getting into discovering 360-degree panoramas on the internet. Here's one of the Great Wall of China.

From Our Hell Hath No Fury Department

Did Viktor Yushchenko think things through before he scorned Yuliya Tymoshenko?

KIEV, December 10 (RIA Novosti) - Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko said Tuesday she approved of the decision by the Supreme Rada, Ukraine's parliament, to dismiss Yuriy Yekhanurov's government.

"This means that the next prime minister and the next government will be elected by the Ukrainian people, and not a backstage regime," she said.

According to news reports, Tymoshenko is now leading the opposition to her former "Orange Revolution" comrade, Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko. Tymoshenko has apparently made peace with Ukraine's pro-Russian faction, in advance of upcoming elections.

British General Slams US Military in Iraq

From Australia's The Age:

THE US Army in Iraq has been accused of cultural ignorance moralistic self-righteousness, unproductive micro-management and unwarranted optimism in a magazine published by the army.

The scathing critique of the US Army and its performance in Iraq was written by a senior British officer.

In an article published this week in the army magazine Military Review, Brigadier Nigel Aylwin-Foster, who was deputy commander of a program to train the Iraqi military, said American officers in Iraq displayed such "cultural insensitivity" that it "arguably amounted to institutional racism" and may have spurred the growth of the insurgency.

The army has been slow to adapt its tactics, he argues, and its approach during the early stages of the occupation "exacerbated the task it now faces by alienating significant sections of the population".

Here's a link to the original article in Military Review: Changing the Army for Counterinsurgency Operations by Brigadier Nigel Aylwin-Foster, British Army.

A Plug For Kate O'Beirne's New Book

Kate was one of the few people who was nice to me after I left the world of conservative think-tanks. Although we don't always agree on everything, she's very, very smart and also entertaining. In addition to heading the Washington bureau of National Review, she's a lawyer from New York City, where her father owned a 52nd Street jazz club, of all things . . .

Mark Steyn on Michael Crichton

The Canadian wit discusses State of Fear and the Kyoto protocol--siding with Michael Crichton against the Green movement:

Question: Why do most global warming advocates begin their scare statistics with "since 1970"?

As in, "since 1970" there's been global surface warming of half a degree or so.

Because from 1940 to 1970, temperatures fell.

Now why would that be?

Who knows? Maybe it was Hitler. Maybe world wars are good for the planet.

Or maybe we should all take a deep breath of CO2 and calm down.

BTW, Russian climatologists generally don't like the Kyoto protocol, either.

Bremer Picks Fight With Holland Over Afghanistan Troops

According to this United Press International story, the hapless former American viceroy in Baghdad appears to be trying to scare Holland into sending more troops to Afghanistan by threatening their American investments:

In an interview with Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant' Bremer said that while he understood Dutch concerns, a failure to send troops would raise questions in Washington about NATO's commitment if the mission doesn't go ahead. Bremer said, 'What is NATO all about if our allies are not prepared to stand should-to-shoulder with us?'

Bremer added that while Europe wanted more international cooperation, 'when the possibility emerges, people are side-stepping it. Time and time again decisions must be taken by the U.S. government, by Congress, that influence Dutch economic interests. It is not difficult to imagine decisions could be taken that would not be in the interests of the Netherlands.'

What can one say? Bremer almost lost Iraq--and if he keeps this up, he's on track to lose Holland as well as Afghanistan.

One thing about the Dutch, they are tough and do things their way.

If they send more troops to Afghanistan, it won't be to make more money. And if they don't do it, it won't be to make more money. Frankly, Holland is rich, and doesn't need our charity.

According to US Government reports, the Netherlands is currenlty the third largest foreign investor in the United States, after Great Britain and Japan.

Statements like Bremer's are not just crude insults, they are an invitation for the Dutch to stand up to American bullying by sticking it to us in Afghanistan.

Because of diplomatic bungling by the Bush administration in the war on terror, Spain has dropped out; Uzbekistan has kicked us out; and we are now waiting to find out what Holland wil do . . .

If Holland can put an end to the Bush administration's pathetic bullying, that will be be a service to humanity--and world peace.

When a Neighbor is Murdered . . .

The news that retired New York Timesman David E. Rosenbaum had been murdered a few blocks from our house has been troubling. Most disturbing of all has been the peculiar way the Times and Post have gingerly stepped around the story as a bona-fide news event.

There was not any first page coverage in either paper--although journalists killed, kidnapped or jailed in other countries are often covered in the main headlines. In fact, the NY Times initially printed only an obituary, without any news story whatsoever.

The reason may be emotional, that the death of a co-worker is too upsetting to print. However, I suspect that it reflects the conscious and unconscious biases at the Times and Post that have hampered their coverage of news elsewhere in the world.

For if the papers had been doing their job, the surviving family members would not have told reporters that they can't imagine who could possibly have killed a 63-year old man for his wallet. In DC, and in every American city, there are people killed every day for even less.

Right now, the DC area is facing some sort of crime wave. Violence has spilled out of the center city into places like Prince George's County and the neighborhood where David E. Rosenbaum was bashed in the head. Had the major media cared about this violence when it happened to non-subscribers, there is every likelihood that police might have cracked down before the perpetrators--emboldened by their ability to operate ever more widely--took a chance on Gramercy Street, NW. So, unable to accept their guilt, now the Times and Post downplay what should be a front-page story demanding at least the head of Washington's inept police chief--and probably the Mayor too. But they don't want to rock the boat, and so tiptoe around the failure of the government to fulfill its most basic function--the preservation of streets one can walk on.

Like common criminals, terrorists can get away with whatever people let them do. If the Times and Post showed that they cared about the victims of street crime, they would also be able to show that they care about the victims of terrorism. But to do that would require a re-thinking of their most closely held prejudices about law and order. Their sympathy for criminals rivals their sympathy for terrorists. And it is a problem for the David E. Rosenbaums of this world.

Where are the people like New York's Mayor Rudy Giuliani when you need them?

The Acropolis in 360 Degrees

Found this link to Arounder, a website featuring 360-degree panoramas of international tourist destinations. You can check out the Acropolis on this site, as well as other destinations around the world.

Plus VR Magazine has more about panoramas.

Clash of Civilizations Hits Denmark

Today's NY Times ran a shorter (and almost censored-sounding) version of Dan Bilefsky's International Herald Tribune article about the rise of Islamist extremism in Copenhagen:

In a secluded community center a few blocks from the school, Fadi Abdul Latif, the spokesman of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Denmark, said in an interview that the ban on school prayer was just the latest outrage from a political establishment that was trying to criminalize Islam in order to discredit the religion.

'The government says it's O.K. to make jokes about urinating on the Koran,' Abdul Latif said. 'They are inciting violence and provocation so that they can make new laws that discriminate even more against Muslims.'

He added that the anti-Muslim rhetoric of the Danish People's Party had contributed to a swelling of Hizb ut-Tahrir's ranks in recent months.

'When Muslims see the discrimination here, they begin to listen,' Abdul Latif said.

In 2002, Abdul Latif was charged with distributing hate literature that attacked Jews and praised suicide bombers as martyrs. A leaflet quoted a verse from the Koran: 'And kill them from wherever you find them, and turn them out from where they have turned you out.' He received a 60-day suspended sentence.

In 2004, Abdul Latif distributed a flyer exhorting Muslims to 'go help your brothers in Falluja and exterminate your rulers if they block your way.'

The story struck my eye because when I lived in Uzbekistan, the media reported claims that the authoritarian regime of Islam Karimov drove young people to join Hizb-ut-Tahrir. Strangely, now the NY Times and International Herald Tribune report claims that liberal Danish democracy and freedom of speech are driving people to join the same Islamist extremist group.

My guess is that it has more to do with the Bush administration's failure to catch Osama Bin Laden or secure a decisive victory in Iraq. People like to bet on a winner. And right now, it looks like Bush is a loser. Which may be why people from Tashkent to Copenhagen are flocking to join extremist groups.

Crush them decisively, and the membership will decline dramatically. There's a precedent from the USA, in the case of a domestic terror group, not so very long ago--anyone remember the Michigan Militia?

Roger L. Simon on Google Video

The blogger, author, and Hollywood screenwriter wonders: Is Google Video the future of the media industry?

Tony Kornheiser on the Washington Redskins

From today's Washington Post:

Come closer, I don't want to shout this:

The Redskins are the luckiest people alive.

Did you hear me? I said the LUCKIEST people alive!

That was a touchdown, boys and girls. A touchdown that would have tied the game late, and given all the momentum to Tampa Bay. Except it wasn't. Because Edell Shepherd couldn't hold the ball. Shepherd had everybody beat, and he couldn't hold the ball.

Chopin: Desire for Love

The other day I watched Jerzy Antczak's musical biography Chopin: Desire for Love on DVD. It is the third film about Chopin and Georges Sand that I have seen. First there was the dazzlingly lush and sentimenal 1945 Hollywood classic: Song to Remember, starring Paul Muni, Merle Oberon, and Cornel Wilde as Chopin. Then, Jame LaPine's quirky American independent remake starring Hugh Grant. Judy Davis, Bernadette Peters, Emma Thompson, Julian Sands, Mandy Patinkin: Impromptu. Now--Chopin: Desire for Love. The latest looks at the story of George Sand and Frederic Chopin from a Polish perspective, and is just fascinating because it is so different.

Of course, I'm biased. Jerzy Antczak was my teacher at UCLA in the 1980s. He was a superb instructor, and as part of our course he screened his 1976 historical epic Nights and Days for us, a Polish War and Peace or Gone with the Wind. It was fascinating, because the style was so different from that of an American film. There was a wildness and intensity and spontaneity that was at first confusing, but seemed to a sort of signature style. In any case, he was trying to make another film, and I felt bad for him that Hollywood didn't seem supportive. I was afraid he'd never do another picture. We lost touch over the years, as I moved away from filmmaking and into Washington, DC think-tank circles.

When I went off to Moscow to teach last year I learned that after many years, Jerzy had indeed made another film, about Chopin. That would be interesting. Well, I thought, I'll be near Poland, maybe I can visit. So I emailed him, only to find out that he was still in Los Angeles. He was friendly, and offered to send me a copy of the picture, but I hesitated. What if I didn't like it? I wouldn't want to hurt his feelings...

Last week I bit the bullet, and ordered it from Netflix. I was pleasantly surprised to find that I really enjoyed it. After living in Russia and the former Soviet Union, I found he really captured something in the oppressive relationship between the Russian Grand Duke and Chopin--something I found in the post-Soviet space when it came to personal relations. Chopin had to leave before he suffocated.

Now, it seems to me that in telling Chopin's story, Jerzy was telling his own story of moving to Hollywood. I don't know if there's a George Sand in his life, but the very end, where Chopin's sister takes his heart back to Poland, struck me as a message from Jerzy, as well as a comment on Chopin. Wherever he lived, his heart was still in Poland.

The film has outraged some music lovers and Chopin fans (not to mention fans of George Sand), because unlike other versions, this Polish film depicts Chopin as spoiled, petulant, and childish. And Georges Sand as an inconsiderate and selfish woman who sacrifices her family to her young lover. But somehow, it makes more sense than either the very cutesy lovebirds in Impromptu or the dramatically romantic couple in Song to Remember. (Though I still love the Hollywood classic).

If I hadn't watched the other films, I might have been bothered. But having seen some talented and creative people acting badly, the "warts-and-all" approach Antczak chose for Chopin: Desire for Love, made a lot of sense to me. Yes, these people had problems, psychologically and emotionally. And yet because of, or in spite of, these problems, they made beautiful music and literature together.

In a sense, you come away saying to yourself, I'd like to listen to his music, but I'm not sure I would want to live with Frederic Chopin. The beauty of his music came for his yearning for a better life--a desire for love that perhaps was never fully realized in his lifetime.

Anyway, I'd recommend this film with the warning that this Chopin is not a pleasant fellow (he's certainly no Tom Hulce as a giggling Mozart), and unless you know something of the story of Chopin's life, the dramatic montage may be a little difficult to follow. That said, it is really a beautiful picture.

Add it to your Netflix queue.

UPDATE: Through a google ad on this blog, I found a link to the Carthusian cell where Chopin composed music in Majorca, Spain, which plays a role in the film, here. It is now a Chopin museum.

Moscow? Tashkent? No--Albany, NY . . .

Empire State Plaza, 2005

The Australian on Ariel Sharon

Martin Chulov writes:

What next for Israel is a question intrinsically tied to the immediate future of the Middle East. The options for much of the Arab world are not appealing. A time of turmoil appears certain in Israel, at a juncture in the region where time cannot be spared. Gaza, the February 2005 peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, the formation of Kadima and the UN speech convinced a reluctant Arab world that Sharon had matured into a Jewish leader they could deal with.

There is no one of his stature waiting in the wings, except perhaps the perennial loser of Israeli elections, the 82-year-old Shimon Peres, who split from the Labor Party to follow Kadima after being cast aside by his partyroom. Peres and Sharon are the only two lions left from the Ben-Gurion days. Alongside Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak they are the last living historic political figures in the region.

But there are serious doubts that Peres, also a political turncoat, could unify the disparate band of political refugees that comprises Kadima. They were there because of one man's vision and presence. The group may retain the vision, but, without Sharon's presence, Kadima is set to crumble. It is not without irony that Sharon fell on the day Kadima was officially registered as a political party.

Neurosurgeons at the Hadassah Hospital will gradually try to wake the comatose Israeli giant to assess the damage his massive stroke caused. As they do so, many Israelis will be making amateur medical assessments of their own, such as why their prime minister was given blood-thinning medication known to be linked to cerebral haemorrhaging or why he was taken one hour away to Jerusalem, past an emergency ward much closer to his farm.

They will also want to know why surgeons waited three weeks to schedule minor surgery to correct the congenital hole in his heart. Sharon's stroke came less than 11 hours before he was due to be readmitted after the minor collapse he suffered on December 18. There is, of course, an outside chance that Sharon may make a Lazarus-like return to health. But even then, his authority to lead will have died. In its absence, the region faces upheaval, and a startling awakening.

The end of the line for Sharon has revealed a sign of the times. Stability had been brought to the Middle East not by Arab wise men, but by a Jewish warrior.

Michael Barone on How Blogs Changed American Politics

Writing in US News and World Report, Barone declares that blogs helped Bush and the Republicans by discrediting the mainstream media, while simultaneously moving Democrats to the fringes of the left, rather than back to the center:

The right blogosphere's greatest triumph came after CBS's Dan Rather on September 8 reported that Bush had shirked duty in the National Guard and the network posted its 1972-dated documents on the Web. Within four hours, a blogger on freerepublic.com pointed out that they looked as though they had been created in Microsoft Word; the next morning, Scott Johnson of powerlineblog.com relayed the comment and asked for expert views. Charles Johnson of littlegreenfootballs.com showed that the documents exactly matched one he produced in Word using default settings. CBS defended the documents for 11 days but finally confessed error and eased Rather out as anchor. MSM tried to defeat Bush but instead only discredited itself. The Pew Center's post-election poll showed a sharp decline in the credibility of newspapers and broadcast TV and a sharp increase in reliance on cable news, especially Fox News, and radio.

So what hath the blogosphere wrought? The left blogosphere has moved the Democrats off to the left, and the right blogosphere has undermined the credibility of the Republicans' adversaries in Old Media. Both changes help Bush and the Republicans.

This 'n That on West Virginia's Coal Mine Tragedy

Hollywood blogger This 'n That compares yesterday's tragic news from West Virginia to what happens in Billy Wilder's classic film Ace in the Hole.(Amazon.com photo credit David Forehand)

Agustin Blazquez's New Documentary to Premiere in Miami

Just received this email today:

Dear Readers,

Agustin Blazquez and Jaums Sutton's important new documentary, Covering Cuba 4: The Rats Below, will premiere Saturday, January 21 at 8pm at the Tower Theater in Miami (1508 SW Eighth St.). It's free and will be followed by a panel discussion I'm in.

More information about the documentary is at Cuba Collectibles . I hope to see you there and encourage you to spread the word!

Best,

Myles

Presented by Miami Dade College

COVERING CUBA 4
THE RATS BELOW
(with Spanish subtitles)

US Corporate collaboration with totalitarian Cuba!
The truth about the Elian Gonzalez affair!
What the American liberal media won’t tell!
This complex story unravels through the testimonies of:

DAVID HOECH, DELFIN GONZALEZ, DENNIS K. HAYS, JAMES B. LIEBER,

JIM GUIRARD, LARRY KLAYMAN, MYLES KANTOR and the late REED IRVINE


featuring the songs “Solo Un Niño,” written and performed by
LUISA MARIA GÜELL
and “Sin Esperanzas,” written and performed by
GUSTAVO REX

Contacts: Alejandro Rios: 305-237-7482 & 305-989-1701
Beverly Counts Rodrigues, Director of Public Relations with the Press: 305-237-3949

COVERING CUBA 4: The Rats Below available through www.CubaCollectibles.com

also available COVERING CUBA 3: Elian the real story of injustice and deception by the U.S. government and the American media, COVERING CUBA 2: The Next Generation is a tool to bypass the wall of censorship of the U.S. media that prevents the average American citizen from learning and understanding why Cuban Americans act the way they do in their quest for freedom and democracy for their homeland and CUBA: The Pearl of the Antilles is a nostalgic visual and musical memory dating from pre-Columbian times to January 1, 1959. There is no narration to distract from the visuals or the music, just a few subtitles indicating the year and the places throughout the six original Cuban provinces. This enchanting documentary features 26 glorious melodies by the great Cuban composers performed by Cuban artists.

La Stampa on Russia v Ukraine

Today's Johnson's Russia List has this interesting article from La Stampa (translated by BBC Monitoring) explaining what Putin is up to in Urkaine:

BBC Monitoring
West forces Russia "play defence" if it is not treated as partner - analyst
Source: La Stampa website, Turin, in Italian 4 Jan 06

Text of interview with Russian political scientist Nadia Arbatova by
Francesca Sforza, in Moscow, date not given, entitled "'The West does not
understand how Putin's mind works'", published by Italian newspaper La
Stampa website on 4 January; first paragraph is La Stampa introduction

Moscow: The West's mistake? "You do not understand Vladimir Putin," said
Nadia Arbatova, director of the Institute of European Political Studies at
the Academy of Sciences in Moscow and head of the Russia in a United Europe
Committee. Much listened to in the Kremlin, but often tending in the
opposite direction compared to the ideas of the presidential
administration, Arbatova is convinced that too many post-Cold War
prejudices are still enduring between Russia and Western democracies, and
that the gas war with Ukraine - which broke out at the same time as the
first Russian presidency in the history of the G8 started - has shown once
again how much certain attitudes inherited from the past are hard to kill.

[La Stampa] Nadia Arbatova. Is Moscow's decision to shut off the gas taps
to Kiev a response to the Orange Revolution?

[Arbatova] I believe the question has to be framed in a broader context.
Moscow has not reacted against the legitimate desire of the Ukrainians to
choose their own leader, nor can it be said that cutting off the gas to
Kiev is the direct consequence of the waving of flags in Maidan
[(Independence) Square] a year ago.

Instead, Russia is worried about the enlargement of NATO to countries
traditionally in its sphere of influence and especially the fear of
remaining excluded from the big alliances. It is pointless to deny that
Moscow has special interests in the former Soviet republics - that that is
certainly not a crime - but my impression is that the Western democracies
have refused to accept this reality as a given geopolitical fact.

[La Stampa] Who has erred more in this negotiation?

[Arbatova] There have been mistakes by both sides. From the beginning, Kiev
showed itself reluctant to accept an increase based on the new laws of the
market - to which, in contrast, it gave its approval when it obtained the
status of market economy from the European Commission - and Russia, on the
other hand, made a mistake in not understanding that Kiev needs time to
build a stable economy.

[La Stampa] You must admit that interrupting the supply of gas is not a way
to facilitate a calm resumption of the negotiations on the prices. How do
you think it will be possible to go back to sitting down around the same table?

[Arbatova] What for the Western countries constitutes a reason for outrage
does not have the same importance, for example, to the Ukrainians
themselves, who in fact responded with the same language, illegally
withdrawing gas, as they have always done in the past. I understand the
bewilderment of the West, but this is about different languages, which have
to do with a long history of bilateral relations and which cannot be
replaced overnight by systems imported from Washington or Brussels. We can
debate ad infinitum about which of the two systems is the best, but in the
meantime why not recognize that there are, first of all, two different systems.

[La Stampa] So you believe that the negotiations will resume as if nothing
had happened?

[Arbatova] I think precisely that. Of course, now we are in a delicate
phase, where many sensitivities have been hurt, and there has been a
succession of mistakes by both sides, partly because at stake in this
negotiation is not only the question of the price of gas, but the future
balance between Moscow and Kiev. It is necessary to decide what type of
relationship we want to have, whether based on the laws of the market
economy or on other political objectives. If Ukraine wants to be completely
independent of Moscow, then I believe it is necessary to give it enough time.

[La Stampa] Russia has just assumed the presidency of the G8, and many
Western leaders think that Putin wants to play the energy card to put a new
power politics into operation.

[Arbatova] Russia is important for Europe and for all countries, but I
believe that the system of relations must now set itself a further goal. If
the West continues to perceive Russia as a threat, it is obvious that the
Russians will be forced to play defence; if, on the other hand, there is
the political will to start thinking of Russia as a partner, to involve it
in the decisions in an equal manner, then it is necessary for the West to
change its attitude towards Moscow.

A stroke of key

A stroke of key is a Russian blog that links to this website. I'll add it (and Netflix Fan) to my blogroll, asap. So check it out...

The Secrets of Netflix

Can be found on the Netflix Fan blog . . .

Haaretz's Q & A with Ehud Olmert

Acting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmertanswered questions in a revealing online interview with Haaretz.com last June 15th, which noted that the former Mayor of Jerusalem and Minister for Minorities (Arabs) "... is the most prominent supporter among Likud ministers of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan. He was the first politician on the right to enunciate the basic principles behind this plan..." Now, he's Prime Minster, and the interview is even more interesting than the first time round, since it gives some clue as to where he plans to take Israel.

Konstantin On Russian Ukrainian Gas War

I guess I'm not all alone after all. Konstantin's Russian Blog says Western criticism of Russia is ridiculous:

The way Western mainstream media “analyzed” Russian-Ukrainian natural gas crisis is the peak of idiocy. It simply incredible – a cocktail of logical inconsistencies, libel, juggling with fact and outright political propaganda. Just one “analytical” pearl that covers it all – Ukraine rightly refused to accept four times price hike as this price would ruin its economy. Does it mean that when natural gas prices would drop four times Russia would have the right to demand that Europeans pay the old price? Because such low prices would ruin Russian economy? Because well being of Russians depends on high gas prices? Because Evil West uses natural gas prices as an instrument of political blackmail? Because they want to put Putin on his knees? Would good Europeans agree with such arguments? I doubt it strongly. Actually I’m absolutely sure that Europeans would discard such arguments as stupid and silly. Somehow this perverse logic works well when it comes to Ukraine.

Now, if I could only find a non-Russian who saw things this way...

Where Do Our Readers Come From?

Washington Post Praises Bull Moose

I've had a link in my blogroll for a little while, and today the Washington Post is puffing Bull Moose, aka Marshall Wittman. Most of what they say is true about him being a nice guy, he's always been nice to me. For example, when he headed the Washington office of the Christian Coalition in the 90s, Marshall invited me to give a talk on Woodstock at their annual convention -- as part of a panel on the cultural legacy of the 60s. It was pretty high-level, and intellectually interesting. (That's when I saw the unfunny "comedian" Al Franken in person for the first time, but not at our panel.) Marshall moved on his way, and I moved on my way, but I've always thought he was not mean--which is a rarity in Washington. So, he deserves all the nice words in the Washington Post today. Congratulations, Marshall!

Now, will Wittmann finally get a slot on CNN?

Tucker Carlson on the Jack Abramoff Scandal

Tucker Carlson turns state's evidence against his former conservative colleagues on MSNBC:

Why were supposedly honest ideological conservatives like Sheldon and Reed and anti-tax activist Grover Norquist involved with Jack Abramoff in the first place? Keep in mind that Abramoff's business wasn't just gambling, which by itself should have been enough to scare off professional moralizers like Sheldon. Jack Abramoff was a lobbyist for Indian gambling. Over the years Abramoff and his now-indicted partner took more than $80 million from a half a dozen tribes in return for their efforts to keep Indian gambling revenues tax free.

Step back and think about this for a second. Indian tribes get a special pass from the federal government to run a high-margin monopoly simply because they are Indian tribes, which is to say, simply because of their ethnicity. This is the worst, least fair form of affirmative action, and it should be anathema to conservatives. Conservatives are supposed to support the idea of a meritocracy, a country where hard work not heredity is the key to success and everyone is equal before the law. Conservatives should despise Indian gambling on principal.

And some still do. But others got rich from it, and now they're likely headed to jail. I'll be cheering as they're sentenced. Weirdos and charlatans and self-interested hacks like Lou Sheldon and Grover Norquist have long discredited the conservative ideas they purport to represent. Their political allies in Washington and Congress may be tempted to defend them. I hope they don't. We'll all be better off when they're gone.

Russia, Ukraine: "Let's Make a Deal!"

It's all over but the shouting, according to Reuters.

I still say Russia won this particular confrontation with the West. Let's see how the G-8 summit turns out...

The Washington Post on What's Wrong with USAID

Today's Washington Post editorial about serious problems with US foreign aid programs is so good, I'm going to quote it in full. Whoever wrote it knows what they are talking about. (This seems like the tip of the iceberg, I wish the Post would run one of those multi-part investigations they do so well.).

I'm especially glad that the Post discusses the harm done by working through NGOs. I could not have said it better myself.

Here's their editorial:

Reforming Foreign Assistance

Tuesday, January 3, 2006; A16

THE BUSH administration has done more to expand foreign assistance than any administration since John F. Kennedy's. According to the measures used by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, U.S. government aid came to more than $19 billion in 2004, nearly double what it was in 2000. But the government's competence in dispensing this aid is questionable, and the Bush administration knows it. The president's team deserves support from Congress in its efforts to improve aid's efficacy. Unfortunately, it may come up against suspicion and resistance fueled by self-interest.

The core problem in foreign aid is to strike a balance between legitimate oversight of how tax dollars are spent and counterproductive overregulation. In the 1980s a congressional backlash against corruption in aid triggered an increase in Washington oversight that went too far, causing a new form of waste more pernicious than the old sort. Because some aid money routed through government ministries in poor countries had gone astray, Congress insisted that future aid be routed through nongovernmental organizations with good accounting capabilities. In practice, this meant the money went to U.S.-based groups with high overheads. Many did good work, but their costs exceeded those of ministries and aid groups in the developing world, even allowing for some corruption. Moreover, the reliance on U.S. organizations undermined poor countries' sense of ownership of their development programs, damaging the long-term struggle to foster self-sufficiency.

This error led directly to a second one. Having decided to route aid money through U.S.-based groups, Congress began to micromanage how that money would be spent, depriving recipient countries not only of managerial control but also of a say in their own development priorities. The new cohort of U.S.-based aid contractors encouraged this process by lobbying Congress to protect their programs with budget earmarks; this undermined the priority-setting power of the administration as well as of recipient countries. The result was an aid program not only high on contractors' head-office costs but also low on flexibility. As if to parody its own mania for control, Congress went so far as to mandate that U.S.-financed building in developing countries should comply with the Americans With Disabilities Act. The result is that remote clinics in Afghanistan have wheelchair ramps; never mind that there are no wheelchairs in the vicinity.

This mess was compounded by a final mistake during the 1990s. Faced with a Congress that had grown more skeptical of aid even as it had seized minute control over its disbursement, the Clinton administration smuggled foreign-assistance cash into other parts of the federal budget. The result is a U.S. aid program that's split among more than a dozen spending accounts, some of which duplicate efforts and some of which may even work at cross-purposes.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wants to rationalize this situation. Her team talks mainly about setting priorities for aid rather than letting a patchwork of earmarks and scattered spending accounts putter along without central coordination, but Andrew S. Natsios, the outgoing administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, is also eloquent on the case for local ownership of aid programs. The administration should be encouraged to turn its tentative discussions into a robust reform initiative. But already there have been complaints that the administration is trying to "politicize" U.S. assistance by asserting State Department control -- an odd objection considering how political aid is already. These suspicions of politicization are likely to be compounded by obstruction from U.S.-based aid contractors, who will resent a threat to their earmarks. This resistance must be understood for what it is: special-interest lobbying that hardly serves the interests of poor countries.

Gas--the New Oil

I may the only one who believes this--I can't even convince people I know--but it looks to me like Russia is winning the Ukrainian gas showdown. Here's what the Financial Times has to say:

Gas supplies to Europe returned to normal on Tuesday after Russia restored pipeline deliveries under heavy international pressure. However, Gazprom said Europe’s gas supplies remained under threat as it would not continue to compensate indefinitely for gas “stolen” by Ukraine. “Sooner or later Ukraine will have to pay for this,” said Sergei Kupriyanov, a spokesman for Gazprom.

Ukrainian officials have admitted to taking an unspecified amount from the pipeline but claimed it was gas from Turkmenistan that travels along the same route.

Russia said it was buying up all available Turkmen gas and there was none spare for Ukraine. Officials maintain that any gas taken by Ukraine from the pipeline is therefore Russian gas stolen from European customers.

In other words, Russia was correct to charge Ukraine with diverting European gas, which means Russia was supplying Europe as promised, although not Ukraine. It was Ukraine, not Russia, that proved to be an unreliable supplier, because gas was diverted before being delivered to customers.

Now none of this matters right now, while the EU and US are beating up on Russia. But it matters in Russia. Russia wasn't going to keep Ukraine shut off, IMHO. They were sending a message, a shot across the bow, "probing with bayonets" in Leninist terminology. Russia was reminding Europe that destabilizing Russia could affect EU energy security. What if Putin's government were overthrown, and every local oblast diverted gas promised to the EU? Well, it wouldn't be a pretty picture for Germany and others dependent on Russian gas.

Yes, there was a political message to the EU and US. I'll translate for you: Stop trying to push Russia around.

At the time of the Orange Revolution, an American diplomat gloated to me, "What can Russia do?"

Now Russia has shown that there is at least one thing she can do. Like the OPEC boycott of 1973, which shifted money and power to the Arabs in the global economy, Russia's move is a step towards shifting money and power back to the post-Soviet space. With Russia planning to rebuild its Army and Navy, those LNG tankers from Qatar won't be more secure unless the EU, US and Russia are all on the same page. And Russia can sell a lot of its oil and gas to China, if the EU and US don't want to play ball.

Yes, it was a crude power play by Putin. But IMHO, I think the message was received. We'll be able to test this hypothesis empirically. If Russia is treated with as much respect as Saudia Arabia by the EU and US from now on, it means that Russia played its hand correctly.

UPDATE: I'm not the only one, after all. Alexei has this comment posted on Tim Newman's White Sun of the Desert:

By the way, Gazprom’s new Ukraine tactic has nothing to do with the Cold War (The Economist must be desperately in love with Yulia Timoshenko but that doesn’t make them less superficial). Gazprom is not jeopardizing Europe’s gas supply, that much is obvious. Whether they can force Ukraine to pay what Europe pays for its gas is questionable but at least they have already exposed the Ukrainian importer’s theft of Gazprom gas. It might be the most sensible thing Gazprom has done since Putin installed the new management.

After Moxie (WARNING: If you don't like catblogging, skp this post!)

Our cat Moxie died suddenly last Wednesday, just fell over and was gone within a minute. It was a real "sudden death." We had never seen such a thing. One moment she was there, the next--gone. The vet couldn't find anything wrong at the autopsy, told us it was probably a birth defect. The Birman breed is known for them. It was strange because we had kept her inside and were very protective after losing two previous cats last year. One was probably kidnapped, the other hit by a car in an alley (we blame a silent Prius). But Moxie's life was shorter than the cats who went out. For a week the world seemed very dark. We cancelled a planned trip because we couldn't deal with the suddenness.

The story has a bittersweet ending, luckily. Yesterday, someone we know, in a pure coincidence, showed up with a kitten from her sister's cat, who had a litter. Did we want him? Yes. He doesn't have a name yet, though we went to the vet today and were told he's in good shape, about 10 weeks old, and tested negative for feline leukemia virus. We think we'll keep him... and I'll post a photo later.

White Sun of the Desert

Through a link on Registan, I came across Tim Newman's blog, which he calls White Sun of the Desert. For those who don't know Russia, it is the title of a classic Russian film about Central Asia...

BTW, Tim Newman has an analysis of the current Russia-Ukraine Gazprom dispute, too. (He works in Dubai.)

The American Thinker on "Transgressive" Art

Turns out, it's really not transgressive, after all...

Mark Cuban's Investment Advice for 2006

It's worth considering Mark Cuban's financial advice for 2006, since he's made a lot of money for himself and some of his investors.

Mark Cuban v. The New York Times

I wondered what that long, weird article by about bloggers by Katherine Seelye in today's NY Times business section was all about, so I checked out Mark Cuban's blog, since there was some cryptic commentary buried in the Times story, and they usually bury the lead. Sure enough, Cuban had a lot to say. Which leads to the question: Is the New York Times having a nervous breakdown?

And more--might Mark Cuban bid to buy the NY Times company, a la Charles Foster Kane?

Full disclosure: I actually made some money investing in Mark Cuban's Broadcast.com when it was acquired by Yahoo!

Tube Strike Hits London

We got a nice surprise New Year's Day call from a couple of our friends in London--by cell phone, they were sitting in Joe Allen's--who told us that there was a big Tube strike in London, but that everyone was taking it in stride. This story from The Independent has details.

Curiously, one of the friends on the phone had just been in New York on the eve of the Christmas MTA strike...

World Faces Anti-Semitic Tsunami

Speaking to the BBC, British Chief Rabbi Sir Jonathan Sacks warned that the rapid spread of Islamist extremism threatens to flood the world with violence and hatred on a scale not seen since World War II:

"This is all a kind of tsunami of anti-Semitism which is taking place a long way from this country but (of) which Europe seems unaware," he said.

Here's a link to the Chief Rabbi's London website

Roger L. Simon on Spielberg's Munich

Simon takes apart the film, from the vantage point of a professional screenwriter, here.

And here's a link to Bret Stephens' Wall Street Journal review, mentioned by Simon.

Ukraine Gas Crisis Worsens

Russia's dramatic price hike for gas sold to the Ukraine is sending New Year's shock waves across Europe.

This is where the "free market" rhetoric of the EU and US is running into the "democracy" rhetoric of the Orange revolution. From the Russian point of view, it surely looks like this: Why shouldn't Russia charge what the market will bear, if Ukraine is no longer an ally deserving of subsidy? And why shouldn't the EU and US pay the price difference, if Ukraine is valuable to them? That is, let the EU and US subsidize Russia, rather than Ukraine?

The response--predictable--of the State Department and EU has been a little ham-handed and Cold War-like, to say the least. First, because Russia made a point of honoring all its contracts with the EU, shipping the gas paid for by EU countries. It is Ukraine that has diverted gas, reducing EU supplies, not Russia. Second, because the EU and US are paying for their ill-considered Central Asian policies--Russia bought up all the Turkmen gas that previously went to Ukraine before launching its price hike. Quite simply, the EU and US have no alternative cheaper supply to offer Ukraine at this time.

So, if it is just a business matter, Russia actually is in the right. However, if the Ukraine question is a matter of weakening Russia, then by raising gas prices to the Ukraine, Russia has exposed the political agenda of the EU and US. Either Ukraine will have to pay the increase, or the US and EU will have to do it for them. Neither the EU or US are in a place where they can threaten Russia militarily or economically.

Right now, unless there is some unforeseen development, hiking Ukraine's gas prices looks like a win-win move for Russia...

UPDATE: More on this crisis from the BBC.

UPDATE: It looks like this gas crisis might lead to Russia and Ukraine both joining the WTO.

Happy New Year!

This website even plays Auld Lang Syne...

Israel Celebrates Hannukah--and Novi God...

Haaretz reports on Russian holiday celebrations influence in the Jewish State:

While diners at posh Herzliya Pituah eatery Odeon are sitting down to their New Year's feast of goose liver and quince, the Lesovoy family will be sitting around the table in Ashdod, enjoying traditional kholodetz (veal in aspic) and homemade salads. When the children get up in the morning, they will find presents under a decorated tree left by the Russian Santa Claus, Grandfather Frost, known as Ded Moroz.

The only thing these two celebrations will have in common is the champagne they plan to drink at midnight. For the children, 9-year-old Hanna, 7-year-old Lev and 3-year-old Ela, the new year couldn't arrive at a better time. A week after collecting Hanukkah gelt, they also get presents for Novi God, the Russian new year.

Tom Delay's Russian Connection

Today's Washington Post has this fascinating article about how democracy works in the US Capitol:

The U.S. Family Network, a public advocacy group that operated in the 1990s with close ties to Rep. Tom DeLay and claimed to be a nationwide grass-roots organization, was funded almost entirely by corporations linked to embattled lobbyist Jack Abramoff, according to tax records and former associates of the group.

During its five-year existence, the U.S. Family Network raised $2.5 million but kept its donor list secret. The list, obtained by The Washington Post, shows that $1 million of its revenue came in a single 1998 check from a now-defunct London law firm whose former partners would not identify the money's origins.

Two former associates of Edwin A. Buckham, the congressman's former chief of staff and the organizer of the U.S. Family Network, said Buckham told them the funds came from Russian oil and gas executives. Abramoff had been working closely with two such Russian energy executives on their Washington agenda, and the lobbyist and Buckham had helped organize a 1997 Moscow visit by DeLay (R-Tex.).

The former president of the U.S. Family Network said Buckham told him that Russians contributed $1 million to the group in 1998 specifically to influence DeLay's vote on legislation the International Monetary Fund needed to finance a bailout of the collapsing Russian economy.

Austria's Official Art Embarrasses Government

Pictures like this, part of an Austrian government-funded art project on billboards in Vienna, have been taken down after news about them embarrassed the nation's leaders in the context of Austria's presidency of the European Union.

To me the pose looks remarkably like Nazi propaganda--the targets after all are the USA, Britain, and France. At least we know what the Austrians really think...

First David Irving in jail, now these works of art removed from public places--where are Europe's free-speech, anti-censorship activists? (ht lgf)

Washington Post Publishes America's Secret Plan to Invade Canada

Peter Carlson has the story:

Invading Canada won't be like invading Iraq: When we invade Canada, nobody will be able to grumble that we didn't have a plan.

The United States government does have a plan to invade Canada. It's a 94-page document called "Joint Army and Navy Basic War Plan -- Red," with the word SECRET stamped on the cover. It's a bold plan, a bodacious plan, a step-by-step plan to invade, seize and annex our neighbor to the north. It goes like this:

First, we send a joint Army-Navy overseas force to capture the port city of Halifax, cutting the Canadians off from their British allies.

Then we seize Canadian power plants near Niagara Falls, so they freeze in the dark.

Then the U.S. Army invades on three fronts -- marching from Vermont to take Montreal and Quebec, charging out of North Dakota to grab the railroad center at Winnipeg, and storming out of the Midwest to capture the strategic nickel mines of Ontario.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy seizes the Great Lakes and blockades Canada's Atlantic and Pacific ports.

At that point, it's only a matter of time before we bring these Molson-swigging, maple-mongering Zamboni drivers to their knees! Or, as the official planners wrote, stating their objective in bold capital letters: "ULTIMATELY TO GAIN COMPLETE CONTROL."

Michael Crichton's State of Fear

I found this link to what looked like a PowerPoint presentation critical of the environmental science behind global warming on Roger L. Simon's blog today, and wondered if the Michael Crichton credited as the author was the same person as the best-selling novelist and Harvard Medical School graduate. So I followed the links until I ended up at the official Michael Crichton webpage, which told me that the conflict over global warming is one part of the argument of his new novel, State of Fear. Crichton has a link to a speech he gave called "Aliens Cause Global Warming," which I found really amusing--but there were so many copyright warnings, that I'm afraid to quote from it here, even though I believe I would be protected under "fair use" doctrine. So you'll have to click on the link in the headline to see for yourself.

Anyhow, it turns out that Crichton is among those who question the science behind global warming, and who argue that bad politics are driving scientific policy in dangerous directions. He compares the current global warming scare to American eugenics policy in the 1920s and Soviet Lysenko-ism in the 1930s.

I was a Crichton fan as a teenager, and so found this a fascinating--and unexpected--position for a Harvard alumnus and Hollywood producer and screenwriter to take. It's not something he's doing to become more popular. And he certainly doesn't need the money, so it is highly unlikely that he's some corporate shill. He must believe that the environmental lobby is on the wrong track when it comes to global warming.

If Crichton is right, then the evidence for the Kyoto protocol may be nothing more than another Y2K scare.

Belgravia Dispatch on Britain's Law Lords Rejection of Torture

There is sanity to be found in the torture debate in the UK, as Britain's Law Lords banned torture. Belgravia Dispatch has the decision and comments.

Konstantin's Russian Blog on Ukranian-Russian Gas Negotiations

Konstantin has a Russian perspective on the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine. He seems to be saying now that Ukraine has left Mother Russia's embrace, the country will have to pay pay the price--some 3 billion dollars a year for Russian natural gas...

Nicholas Sarkozy Podcasting From Paris

Yannick Laclau has the story. The more I hear about Sarkozy, the better I feel about France...

UPDATE: Here's a link to another video blog with Sarkozy's interview.

Central Asia's Second Chance by Martha Brill Olcott

Martha Brill Olcott's valuable new survey of Central Asia has appeared at a tricky time. Clearly, the study of Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan was started with an optimistic spirit. It looks like a guidebook that could have been used for businesspeople, academics, students, and even tourists to the region that fills the center of the Eurasian land mass, Mackinder's famous "pivot point" of world history.

The Andijan violence of 2005 has clearly been a pivot point for regional geopolitics, and perhaps for President Bush's Global War on Terror. In the aftermath of what the Uzbek government declared was a terrorist attack on a major population center, the US and EU condemned the government for "excessive force," demanding an international investigation. China and Russia, on the other hand, backed authoritarian leader Islam Karimov's decision to fire on armed demonstrators holding hostages, who had earlier seized several government buildings and set fire to movie theatres. To answer riot and rebellion with Napoleon's "whiff of grapeshot" seemed logical to the East, if not to the West.

This split had spillover effects. In its aftermath, Karimov ordered troops out of the US base in Uzbekistan and signed an alliance with Russia. It marked a geopolitical defeat for the United States, and the first instance where Bush's "democracy" policy took precedence over military requirements for the Global War on Terror. Deprived of its base in Uzbekistan, the US was then squeezed by Kyrgyzstan, which asked for some $200 million dollars to keep open Ganci airbase--100 times what the US had been paying previously.

Round One: Russia and China, by a knockout.

Olcott's book is fascinating, as much for what she does not say, as for what she does. For while she states that "Blame Lies with the Region's Leaders," (p.234), the data in her book equally support an alternative hypothesis which goes unstated: American policies have not only harmed Central Asia, they have damanged the strategic interests of the United States.

Evidence for this hypothesis can be found in remarks scattered throughout the text, like clues to a Sherlock Holms mystery. For example:

For a certain group of policy makers, those concerned with monitoring the democratic progress of these governments, the leaders in charge of these states have effectively become the enemy, men whose departure from political life was viewed as a good thing for their populations . . . The US foreign assistance strategy has led to much ill will on all sides, without substantially enhancing the capacity of either government or opposition to govern in a democratic fashion.(240)

Olcott's book seems to end suddenly--without a customary concluding chapter on p. 244. Instead of tying together loose ends, pages 245-387 present is a mass of raw data in appendices containing charts and graphs; footnotes with fascinating tidbits, and a valuable index.

This silence about her key message seems very Central Asian. If one digs through the data sets, one comes up with a picture of a region that is closer to the one presented by its authoritarian leaders than the one found in reports by NGOs such as Human Rights Watch or the International Crisis Group.

Central Asia is not poor. In fact, the region's economies are growing. There is considerable foreign investment, especially in oil, gas, and mining sectors.

Central Asia is not backwards. In fact, the countries enjoy literacy rates higher than the USA.

What is most striking is Oclott's evidence that Central Asian leaders have not invented the extremist Islamist threat in order to maintain power. The threat from extremism is real. Like Thailand during the Vietnam War, these countries have adopted authoritarian policies to prevent conflicts raging around them from exploding among their populations.

And Olcott almost says this--with caveats blaming Uzbek leadership failures--in a section called "Uzbekistan: Central Asia's Frontline State." Where she points out this little reported fact: "Uzbekistan was the only Central Asian state to join the US-led coalition that invaded Iraq, despite the fact that this damaged its relations with Russia and China."(177) In other words, attacks on Uzbekistan--including Andijan--were attacks on the US-led coalition.

There is more detail in Appendix 13, listing both official and unofficial Islamic organizations--some of which have documented ties to Al Qaeda in addition to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, for example the "Jamaat of Central Asia Mujahideen." This group, according to Olcott, "remains focused on terror acts in Central Asia." She also notes that Tajikistan's "Baiat" (covenant) has perpetrated terror attacks against both non-Muslims and "Muslim grops that it considers too moderate."

This is a book that I am sure to turn to again and again. It is a treasure trove of information that is useful to anyone attempting to understand why what is happening in small countries that are far, far away has relevance to the lives of ordinary Americans, and for improving chances for world peace.

Andrei Malaev-Babel as Isaac Babel

After last night's one-man show by Andrei Malaev-Babel as his grandfather, the legendary Russia writer Isaac Babel, audience members lined up for the actor's autograph. Malaev-Babel's performance of Babel: How It Was Done in Odessa took place in a very small room that was filled to the rafters with Russian teachers attending the national American Association of Teachers of European Languanges convention in Washington. The room was so full that I had to share a small shelf with a teacher from Boston, who told me she had flown down just for the show. As we were pressed into our little box, I thought of the old Russian saying: "Close together, but no offense."

The audience seemed a little disappointed that the main event was perfomed in English (due to a misunderstanding, apparently), though it certainly made it easier to follow with my basic/intermediate language skills. Malaev-Babel redeemed himself at the end with a short recitation in Russian, that was a big hit.

The stories in English were Di Grasso from Stories 1925-1938; How It Was Done in Odessa from The Odessa Stories; and Guy de Maupassant also from Stories 1925-1938. The final scened in Russian was set in a Jewish cemetery, and a meditation on death. It received warm applause.

Malaev-Babel's performance is a very Russian-style evening, evidence of his training at the Schukin School of the Vakhtangov Theatre Institute in Moscow. He takes Stanislavsky and Danchenko's commitment to artistic truth as his own. For some Americans, the style might seem a bit slow, but to this viewer it seemed just right--free of cheap theatrics and antics that clutter up too many stages nowadays. It was a classical rendering of a classic set of tales. The tragic fate of Babel, shot on Stalin's orders, was known to this audience, which gave the evening a poignant and soulful quality. And Babel's Jewish themes made for some appropriate Hannukah entertainment.

In the question and answer session afterwards, Malaev-Babel came across as a charming and thoughtful actor-director, dedicated to his art, his family legacy, and to truth. When asked how come he went into directing, he modestly answered that it was his teacher's choice. "You are too smart to be an actor," he was told, "actors are dumb." Malaev-Babel said he disagreed with that viewpoint, but he went ahead and became a director anyhow.

Next for Malaev-Babel's Stanislavsky Theatre Studio--Dostoevsky.

My Phish Story

Over the Christmas holiday in Florida, I got "Phished." I never heard the term before, and learned it when I called American Express to notify them that I had--incredibly stupidly--given personal information on a fake eBay website, in response to what I quickly discovered was a phony eBay suspension letter. This is part of how they pull an identity theft. It turns out that when phony spam--called "spoof"--hooks a sucker, the sucker has been "fished". "Oh, I'm so sorry," said the operator, "you got fished." Who then told me about a new American Express identity protection insurance plan that I could get for six dollars a month, that would pay up to $15,000 in legal expenses.

I had notified eBay immediately, via a LiveAdvisor popup email exchange.And eBay were pretty good about it. They referred me to the eBay identity theft webpage. I stopped filling out the phony form before putting down my credit card numbers or bank accounts, but unfortunately did give out my social, driver's license, and some other personal info. To a fraudster! Ebay said they thought they may have wanted to use my account to order thousands of dollars of merchandise to someone else, and that they could be stopped without closing the account. We'll see. I got an email from their security office later, to confirm my report, very quickly. After all, their business surely would collapse if anyone could just steal anyone else's account...

So, I went down the eBay checklist. I notified the local police in Winter Park, in order to file a police report. When I called , they wanted to send a cop to our house, but it seemed to me that it might ruin the Christmas Cheer, so instead I went down to what I thought was the station house. Now, Winter Park, Florida is a classy place. So classy that the police station is unmarked. I drove around for a while until I realzed that it looks like an ordinary office building. It was nighttime, the front door was locked. So I picked up the phone by the door, and then got buzzed into the entrance. Where I sat and waited for about ten minutes in a nice Spanish-style office park lobby, until a patrolman emerged from somewhere. He didn't seem too excited. He said he used eBay himself. Told me not to cancel my eBay account, just change my password. And don't go crazy getting a new social or driver's license, either. The policeman, who didn't seem to feel my pain, said that until something was charged to my credit card, no big crime had really been committed. I told him that I thought that fraud had been committed, someone pretending to be eBay had gotten my personal information under false pretenses. He said anyone could get the information that I gave out from a number of places for $40 (I didn't know that...). So long as I didn't give out my credit card numbers, or bank accounts, which I didn't, they probably wouldn't be interested. Too much trouble, he indicated. I hoped he was right. He did agree to give me an "event number" but not to file a full police report. How would you find them anyway, he concluded, they're probably in the United Kingdom. Now, why he thought it was a British gang, I don't know, except that a local Orlando barber shop owner had just been arrested for wire fraud. They have a pretty laid-back attitude in Winter Park. But I guess at least so far, the policeman was right.

So, that's how I came to call American Express, and learn that I had been caught in a "phishing" scam.

In any case, when I got home, the people I were staying with laughed and laughed. They had heard about it on TV, someone had reported on a similar scheme with Pay Pal. And the person I was travelling with had already deleted her spam. And how did they get this information about you? my hostess asked. "I gave it to them." More laughter.

Of course, I went through the recommended eBay steps, notified the relevant parties, changed my passwords, and was sure to file a "fraud alert" with the credit agencies. That's so anyone trying to open a phony bank account, get a credit card, or buy something on eBay--"One guy bought a house with a phony identity," my AmEx operator told me--would be double-checked.

It may have been a coincidence, but when I got to the airport to take my flight home a couple of days later, I was pulled aside by security, who noted that my boarding pass had a big "S" for special search (not "sucker", I hoped). I was guided to a special area where a team went through my bags as I was patted down and frisked by a man with rubber gloves.

Locking the barn door after the horse is gone, here's a link to the Federal Trade Commission's helpful website How Not to Get Hooked in a Phishing Scam.

Hannukah in Santa Monica

From our Believe It or Not Department: Over Christmas, we heard Garrison Keillor sing this 1963Tom Lehrer classic on NPR. By some incredible coincidence, opening the mail at home today, I found that my father sent me Lerhrer's song (and some others) as a Hannukah present...Happy Hannukah, Dad!

You can find a complete collection of Tom Lehrer song lyrics at this website.

The American Thinker on Edward Rothstein on Stephen Spielberg

I read Edward Rothstein's excellent NY Times article dissecting Spielberg's Munich on the airplane yesterday, while flying home. He's nailed Spielberg--and collaborators such as "playwright" Tony Kushner (who once yelled at me at a sparsely attended pro-NEA rally when I tried to interview him)--dead to rights.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Happy Kwanzaa!

We're taking off a few days for the holidays...

Happy Holidays!

Konstantin's Russian Blog on NGOs in Russia

He links to an article on NGOs in South Africa, and notes that the law is similar to Russia's--yet Russia is criticized, while South Africa is not. He also has an interesting defense of Putin's policies, in response to former American diplomat Richard S. Williamson's recent attack.

BBC: Nerve Gas Attack in Chechnya

This is a disturbing news report from Chechnya, if true, because it may mean that the genie is out of the bottle for terrorist nerve gas attacks.

Which makes the FBI failure to solve the 2001 anthrax attacks even more troubling.

And may make President Bush's failure to find WMD in Iraq even more of a problem--what if some dangerous chemicals were "handed off" to others?

Let's hope that it isn't nerve gas (but unfortunately, it was anthrax). One nerve gas attack in New York City at Christmastime, and Bush will be in deep voodoo, as his father used to say.

Intelligent Decision

Today's Washington Post has an excerpt from Judge John E. Jones III ruling in Pennsylvania's "intelligent design" case:

Since the scientific revolution of the 16th and 17th centuries, "science has been limited to the search for natural causes to explain natural phenomena," Jones writes, noting that the scientific revolution was explicitly about the rejection of "revelation" in favor of empirical evidence.

Since then, he writes, "science has been a discipline in which testability, rather than any ecclesiastical authority or philosophical coherence, has been the measure of a scientific idea's worth."

Anne Applebaum: Bush Mocks Rule of Law

Anne Applebaum is sometimes more anti-Russian than necessary (perhaps because her husband is Polish Defense Minister Radek Sikorski), but today's commentary on President Bush's undermining the rule of law in the US hits the mark. The bigger question coming from all the scandals swirling around the National Security Agency spying controversy is simple: How can the US have credibility urging rule of law for other countries while an American President shows contempt for the rule of law at home?

How About Those Redskins?

When the Washington Redskins beat the Dallas Cowboys the other day, there was definitely joy in Mudville--at least inside the Beltway. As New York seems to decline, Washington appears to be on a roll. Metropolitan area population -- 4 million and growing. I've haven't seen so many fancy cars since I lived in Los Angeles. The other day I watched as a Rolls-Royce drove into the Mazza Gallery parking entrance. So far, no major strikes, either (let's hope it stays that way).

NYC's Transit Strike -- A Blast from the Past

To any native New Yorker (I was born in Manhattan), the news that NYC's MTA strike is now in its second day has a nostalgic ring. The clock has turned back to the pre-Giuliani way of life. For some 20 years, New York has been relatively strike-free. Mayor Giuliani cleaned up the city, and kept the unions in line. It was, it appears, like Camelot, doomed not to last. This strike is a sign that something is going wrong.

Another sign was Mayor Bloomberg's choice of Raymond Kelly as police chief--he was widely reputed to have turned the city into a crime disaster area under Mayor Dinkins, so why on did Bloomberg bring him back? Surely, there was someone else who could do the job.

We were in Manhattan not so long ago and the signs of decay were everywhere--garbage swirling in the wind, a hustler trying to pull a fast one on a Starbuck's cashier, menacing figures and homeless wandering the streets. This phenomenon has been noticed by others, including Taki in his Spectator column, and a another friend of ours just back from a visit.

As New York City's elevator operators used to ask: "Going down?"...

Daniel Pipes on America's War on Terror

...And other things, in this article. I agree with Pipes that things may be getting worse, especially vis-a-vis the Islamist issue. However, Pipes might need to bite the bullet and admit that one reasone is that President Bush has not exercised proper leadership in this or other fields (remember Hurricane Katrina and "Heck of a job, Brownie?". If things are going wrong, the buck stops (and should stop) with the President. He needs to stop saying "Trust me."

Top Spy Says US Bases Threaten Russia

Flash to Ambassador Fried! After your remarks rejecting Russian self-determination, according to the Moscow News, Russia wants to close US bases in the former Soviet Union because they may pose a threat:

Russia’s foreign spy chief said military forces from other countries deployed at bases along Russia’s periphery are a threat to the nation, the Associated Press news agency reported Monday.

In comments that appeared directed at U.S. forces deployed on bases in former Soviet countries, the agency quoted Sergei Lebedev, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, as saying that Russia no longer had a “main adversary” like during the Cold War.

But “Russians cannot help but be concerned about new military bases and military contingents being deployed around our country,” he was quoted as saying.

Russia has watched warily as the United States deployed forces to the Central Asian countries of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and strengthened military and political ties with Ukraine and Georgia. Also, the three Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004 despite Moscow’s strong objections.

The War Against Christmas . . .

. . .is nothing new, nor is it particularly American, or anti-religious. It is at least as old as the Puritan movement, faith of New England's settlers--Christmas was banned in Boston for 22 years. Among other prominent anti-Christmas activists was the English Lord Protector, Oliver Cromwell, who outlawed it.

WSJ: Earthquake Aid Boosts US Image

It seems that actually helping people, instead of lecturing them, had made America better liked in Pakistan, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal:

Long a stronghold for Islamic extremists and the world's second-most populous Muslim nation, Pakistanis now hold a more favorable opinion of the U.S. than at any time since 9/11, while support for al Qaeda in its home base has dropped to its lowest level since then. The direct cause for this dramatic shift in Muslim opinion is clear: American humanitarian assistance for Pakistani victims of the Oct. 8 earthquake that killed 87,000. The U.S. pledged $510 million for earthquake relief in Pakistan and American soldiers are playing a prominent role in rescuing victims from remote mountainous villages.

A Measure of Media Bias

Today's Drudge Report had an item about this report by UCLA professor Tim Groseclose and Jeffrey Milyo of the University of Missouri. So I googled the link to their original article. Here's the abstract:

Abstract: We measure media bias by estimating ideological scores for several major media outlets. To compute this, we count the times that a particular media outlet cites various think tanks and policy groups, then compare this with the times that members of Congress cite the same groups. Our results show a strong liberal bias: all of the news outlets we examine, except Fox News’ Special Report and the Washington Times, received scores to the left of the average member of Congress. Consistent with claims made by conservative critics, CBS Evening News and the New York Times received scores far to the left of center. The most centrist media outlets were PBS NewsHour, CNN’s Newsnight, and ABC’s Good Morning America; among print outlets, USAToday was closest to the center. All of our findings refer strictly to news content; that is we exclude editorials, letters, and the like.

Now that there's a quantitative method to conduct such research, maybe the Corporation for Public Broadcasting might contract with Groseclose and Milyo as ombudsmen to scientifically study their entire program lineup on radio and television--instead of hiring Ken Tomlinson's political cronies, or retired journalists who may have axes to grind?

State Department Offcial Rejects Russian Sovereignty

In a December 14th appearance at the American Enterprise Institute, the assistant secretary, Bureau of European & Eurasian Affairs, U.S. Department of State, appeared to challenge Russia's right to national self-determination (see boldface sentence in transcript below):

QUESTION: Thank you. I'm Vladimir Kara-Murza with RTVI Television, Russia. When you spoke about advancing democracy in the former Soviet region – Belarus, Kyrgyzstan – you didn't mention Russia. How does that – advancing democracy in Russia, is that an issue for the U.S. Administration, especially in terms of its relations with Putin?

And then just quickly, is the U.S. prepared to cooperate with the European Union investigation on the detainee issue?

AMBASSADOR FRIED: Well, we have to find a phrase other than former Soviet space. You know, the United States doesn't usually refer to itself as the former British Colonial space. (Laughter.) It's over, okay? It's over.[Editor's note: What about all the anglosphere stuff?]

Russian democracy – the time is gone when nations could simply wall off the world and say non-interference in internal affairs is an absolute condition of state sovereignty. The United States has every – every country in the world is interested in the internal affairs of the United States. [sic, Fried may have meant to say Russia, a Freudian slip?]

I think Fried may come to regret these remarks...

Exit Poll: Islamists Win Iraqi Election

According to Reuters:

A straw poll conducted after voting closed in Iraq's election on Thursday showed the dominant Shi'ite Islamist bloc retained a strong following, but was being challenged by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's secular list.

More than 500 interviews with voters by Reuters reporters across Iraq indicated strong support in Shi'ite areas for the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), the senior partner in a ruling coalition with the Kurds.

The UIA says it has won 57 percent of the national vote for Iraq's first full-term parliament since Saddam Hussein fell.

More on UIA from Wikipedia.

Why Torture is Bad

The Washington Post seems to be on a roll today. Here's their Outlook section essay by Vladimir Bukovsky about the damage torture does--to torturers.

So, why would democratically elected leaders of the United States ever want to legalize what a succession of Russian monarchs strove to abolish? Why run the risk of unleashing a fury that even Stalin had problems controlling? Why would anyone try to "improve intelligence-gathering capability" by destroying what was left of it? Frustration? Ineptitude? Ignorance? Or, has their friendship with a certain former KGB lieutenant colonel, V. Putin, rubbed off on the American leaders? I have no answer to these questions, but I do know that if Vice President Cheney is right and that some "cruel, inhumane or degrading" (CID) treatment of captives is a necessary tool for winning the war on terrorism, then the war is lost already.

Inside America's Yemeni Democracy-Building Program

David Finkel has a fascinating front-page article in the Washington Posttoday, about the National Democratic Institute's program in Yemen headed by an American woman named Robin Madrid. Finkel hasn't yet informed us that, according to her NDI biography, Madrid was political director of the Arab American Institute, "where she developed and implemented programs to politically energize Arab Americans to participate fully in the 1998 and 2000 elections". The story is typically bureaucratic and absurd, and sadly one of the participants seems to have been killed in a tribal shootout that may have been connected.

On the first day, June 15, 2005, none of the 14 tribal sheiks who gathered in a conference room to meet with Madrid about her program had been followed by the internal police. None had been called by the police in the middle of the night. None had been summoned to the president's palace and told that Americans aren't to be trusted. And none had been hurt, killed or nearly killed, which would happen to one of the men on the 88th day of the program when he would be ambushed by three carloads of men with machine guns in an ongoing tribal war, the very thing that Madrid and the men hoped the program could end.

Jack Anderson, Remembered

By Murray Waas. (ht War and Piece)

By Howard Kurtz, in the Washington Post.

By John Roderick,also in the Washington Post.