Andrew Kuchins on Putin's Missile Offer

From Newsday (ht Johnson's Russia List):

Maybe it is my sunbaked California upbringing that inclines me to think optimistically that Putin is serious, but let me offer a few reasons to support this view. First, I really don't think Putin wants a trashed U.S.-Russian relationship as part of his political legacy. I know Bush does not, and that is a big reason the two of them unexpectedly agreed to schedule the meeting in Maine this summer. But for that meeting to succeed in really turning the momentum in U.S.-Russian relations in a positive direction after a long downturn, something reasonably dramatic needs to be agreed on. Missile defense cooperation would certainly check that box.

Second, we have been discussing sharing missile launch data with the Russians for nearly 15 years, and we did reach an important agreement in 2000 to establish in Moscow a Joint Data Exchange Center, but implementation has been held up for legal and political reasons. Exploring missile defense cooperation was on the agenda for Bush and Putin going back to 2001, but the shift in our focus after 9/11 and other factors put that on the back burner. So there is considerable pre-history here that makes this proposal not entirely "out of the blue."

The obstacles, of course, are considerable. First, the radar in Azerbaijan is not of the technical specifications of the X-Band radar we had planned for the Czech Republic. There are all kinds of technical and legal complications, but the biggest challenges boil down to trust and politics. There is currently inadequate trust among the Russian and American political and military establishments to virtually overnight engage in a degree of cooperation found only among the closest of allies.

Bush and Putin have been saying for years that the Cold War is over; now they have the opportunity to most decisively prove that conclusion.

If they were to muster the political will against all odds, they would do a great deal for international security and their precarious legacies. You can bet that Putin's friends in Tehran and, to a lesser extent, in Beijing are not so comfortable with this turn of events.