Belgravia Dispatch analyses the geopolitical importance of Kashmir, and discusses the effects earthquake relief efforts might have on extremist groups, such as Lakshar-et-Taiba, in the region:So basically I think that the LeT has more than the financial endurance necessary to weather whatever hard assets they lost during the storm and provide support and relief services to God knows how many Pakistanis lost their home during this latest event. That is going to take some time for them to mobilize, however, which is one of the reasons why I'm more than confident that the US can beat them off at the pass on this one if we act quickly and decisively. This also fits into Dr. Gunaratna's recommendation of creating a parallel NGO and aid network in Muslim countries to serve as a challenge to Wahhabi charities like the LeT's parent MDI organization.
There are also broader issues of national interest here that need to be taken into consideration here. Riding on the wave of popular anti-Americanism that swept across much of the Muslim world during the run-up and aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq, the LeT claims that it recruited as many as 3,350 new members from January to June 2003. Even if these totals are inflated (and it certainly wouldn't be the first time), I think it's entirely fair to say that allowing several thousand people to become dependent on LeT social services for the immediate future does not serve US national interest. Moreover, Pakistanis assisted by the US will in all probability be far more likely to assist us at tracking down al-Qaeda and their allies.
Finally, if the heavy casualties suffered by the LeT and other Pakistani jihadi groups live up to hype, this would be an exceedingly good time for the US to press Pakistan on the dual issues of a permanent settlement over Kashmir or at least dissuading them from allowing the wounded groups to rebuild their destroying training infrastructure.
In this context, Dr. Rice's offer of $50 million doesn't seem like enough, since Kuwait alone has offered $100 million. Americans might offer substantially more aid money than any other country, in order both to be seen as the most credible highest bidder in this war for the "hearts and minds" of Pakistan -- and to pay Musharraf enough to shut down the Islamist extremists and terrorists operating in Kashmir, once and for all.
UPDATE: There's more on this subject here.
