"Color Revolutions" Were Media Hype...

An article by Katya Kalandadze of Syracuse University and Mitchell A. Orenstein of Johns Hopkins University in the journal Comparative Political Studies (ht Democracy Digest) finally admits:

The sight of thousands of people demonstrating for clean elections and an end to corrupt postcommunist regimes led many observers to declare that the so-called color revolutions had finally brought democracy to Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. But how successful have these electoral revolutions actually been? The authors analyze all cases of electoral revolutions worldwide since 1991, distinguishing between failed and successful electoral revolutions, to conclude that even successful electoral revolutions have shown insignificant or no democratic progress in their wake. Electoral revolutions are ineffective at advancing democratization because they place too great an emphasis on elections and do not address other fundamental obstacles to democratization in hybrid and authoritarian regimes. International influences have proven more successful in promoting democratization in countries of postcommunist Europe.

Do You Know Any White House Visitors?

Search this handy-dandy database to find out...(ht Huffington Post)

White House Visitor Records Requests

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CIT Bankruptcy Shakes Asia

From Channel News Asia:

HONG KONG - Asian markets tumbled Monday as a heavy loss on Wall Street at the end of last week was compounded by the bankruptcy of US bank CIT at the weekend, hitting confidence for a global economic recovery.

Tokyo lost 2.31 percent, Sydney 2.21 percent and Seoul 1.37 percent as dealers went into selloff mode. Hong Kong lost 0.61 percent, after having been almost three percent lower at one point.

Wall Street had plummeted 2.51 percent on Friday as confidence whipped up by the gross domestic product data was wiped out by worries that CIT Group, one of the largest small-business lenders in the United States, was in trouble.

Those fears were realised on Sunday when the bank filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy with its board approving a "prepackaged" restructuring plan to shed 10 billion US dollars in debt.

This comes after a $2 billion US-taxpayer bailout...I want my money back!

IMHO, the bankruptcy judge ought to make darn sure all the CIT execs refund their bonuses as part of any workout.

UPDATE from TechTicker at Finance.Yahoo.com:

The prepackaged plan allows CIT to restructure its debt while trying to keep badly needed loans flowing to thousands of mid-sized and small businesses. The plan keeps CIT's operations alive and makes it possible for the company to exit bankruptcy by year's end.

But here's the bad news: While senior debt holders will only lose 30% of their investment, we, the U.S. taxpayer, will lose the entire $2.3 billion we lent the company this summer.

William Black, professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law is dumbfounded. "We put ourselves on the hook in a completely inept way where we lose first. We lose entirely as the taxpayers."

Black, a former top federal banking regulator, blames Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner for negotiating such a bad deal on behalf of the American public.

His argument goes as follows:

The government was in no way obligated to lend the struggling CIT money and, in fact, initially refused to provide it bailout funds. More importantly, being the lender of last resort, the government should have guaranteed we'd be the first to get paid if CIT eventually filed Chapter 11. By failing to do so, "it's like he [Geithner] burned billions of dollars again in government money, our money, gratuitously," says Black.

Here's a link to William Black's book at Amazon.com:

Did New York Times Pay Ransom to Taliban for Afghan Reporter?

The National Review Corner quotes Michael Yon's tweets to that effect:

I have been told by very close sources that ex-CIA officers helped pay off release for Rohde. I knew this while it was ongoing.about 3 hours ago from web...

...Numerous very well placed sources have told me New York Times/associates paid millions to get Rohde release.about 3 hours ago from web

More at the Huffington Post.

Goldman Sachs "May Have Violated Securities Laws"

According to Greg Gordon of McClatchy Newspapers (ht Huffington Post):

WASHINGTON — In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting.

Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies.

Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk.

Now, pension funds, insurance companies, labor unions and foreign financial institutions that bought those dicey mortgage securities are facing large losses, and a five-month McClatchy investigation has found that Goldman's failure to disclose that it made secret, exotic bets on an imminent housing crash may have violated securities laws...

***

...To piece together Goldman's role in the subprime meltdown, McClatchy reviewed hundreds of documents, SEC filings, copies of secret investment circulars, lawsuits and interviewed numerous people familiar with the firm's activities.

McClatchy's inquiry found that Goldman Sachs:

*Bought and converted into high-yield bonds tens of thousands of mortgages from subprime lenders that became the subjects of FBI investigations into whether they'd misled borrowers or exaggerated applicants' incomes to justify making hefty loans.

*Used offshore tax havens to shuffle its mortgage-backed securities to institutions worldwide, including European and Asian banks, often in secret deals run through the Cayman Islands, a British territory in the Caribbean that companies use to bypass U.S. disclosure requirements.

*Has dispatched lawyers across the country to repossess homes from bankrupt or financially struggling individuals, many of whom lacked sufficient credit or income but got subprime mortgages anyway because Wall Street made it easy for them to qualify.

*Was buoyed last fall by key federal bailout decisions, at least two of which involved then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a former Goldman chief executive whose staff at Treasury included several other Goldman alumni.

The firm benefited when Paulson elected not to save rival Lehman Brothers from collapse, and when he organized a massive rescue of tottering global insurer American International Group while in constant telephone contact with Goldman chief Blankfein. With the Federal Reserve Board's blessing, AIG later used $12.9 billion in taxpayers' dollars to pay off every penny it owed Goldman.

Happy Halloween!

1976 Swine Flu Vaccine May Still Protect Against Current Pandemic

Someone I know saw a link to this September 2009 Scientific American article in a Reuters item, and wondered why it isn't getting more play--as action based on these findings could make available 43 million doses of needed H1Ni flu vaccine to those who really need it. Money quote:

One of the NEJM studies also showed that many older Americans as well as recipients of the 1976 swine flu vaccine may already be protected against the new virus. In that study, researchers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report that tests of serum taken from 1976 swine flu vaccine recipients showed a strong protective immune response against today's pandemic virus. The findings may help to explain why the virus sickens children and young adults more than older people, the authors wrote. The preexisting immunity may also prime 1976 vaccinees to respond vigorously to the new pandemic vaccine.

"It would certainly be something very interesting to look at," says Jackie Katz, senior author of the study. "That's why we did these studies originally, to help inform the public health response."

Adults appear protected

Since the new H1N1 virus emerged earlier this year, health officials have noted how it has disproportionately struck children and young adults and conspicuously spared older people worldwide. The disparity is most dramatic in the U.S.: 79 percent of laboratory-confirmed cases have been in people under 30 years old, whereas only two percent of cases have been in adults over 60. The U.S. median age of pandemic infections so far is 12, but somewhat higher in other countries. The median age of confirmed cases in Australia is 21, for example.

Since May, Katz, who is chief of the CDC National Influenza Division's Immunology and Pathogenesis Branch, has been testing stored serum samples to look for existing immunity to the new virus in the U.S. population. Her group's latest report shows that serum from adults born before 1930, including survivors of the 1918 pandemic, possesses antibodies that recognize and respond powerfully to the novel H1N1 virus.

With an antibody concentration of 40 or more considered protective (immunologists describe antibody responses in terms of serum dilution ratios, such as 1:40), the tests showed that 100 percent of subjects born between 1910 and 1929 mounted antibody levels of 80 or more. Only 34 percent of subjects born before 1950 mounted comparable levels, suggesting that exposure to the 1918 pandemic virus or its immediate descendents in the 1920s and 1930s conferred the strongest protection against the new flu.

The original swine flu

The CDC group also started over the summer to test 83 samples of serum drawn in 1976 from adults who received a single dose of the swine flu vaccine as well as a handful of samples from children who got the 1976 vaccine. The study found that the serum from 52 (63 percent) of the adult subjects produced antibody levels of 160 or more when exposed to the novel H1N1 virus. That number was nearly as many (59) of those whose serum demonstrated a strong response when exposed to the 1976 swine flu itself.

The NEJM report notes that a Japanese study recently reported finding protective antibody responses against the novel H1N1 virus in Japanese adults exposed to the 1918 pandemic virus, but not in subjects born after 1920. Serum from older Europeans tested by the CDC also showed lower response levels than the U.S. samples, possibly indicating a greater level of protection among Americans from the 1976 vaccine, which was given only in the U.S.

I got my shot in 1976, as did someone I know, so we won't be getting it again...freeing up at least two doses for some kids with asthma or those with weakened immune systems.

Given the current shortages of vaccine, I hope the Centers for Disease Control would try to spread the word about health benefits of the 1976 shot more vigorously.

PBS Documentary's Message: "Let Them Smoke Pot"

The other night, I came home from teaching to find someone I know watching a PBS documentary instead of the World Series. The Botany of Desire, a 1.2 million dollar program, featured our former next-door neighbor on West 110th Street in New York City, now millionaire and bestselling author, Michael Pollan. He was completely unrecognizable, now looking more like bullet-headed former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson than the bearded, softy, Bennington graduate and protege of novelist John Gardner. As the program unfolded, it became pretty obvious that Pollan and his crew of not-so-merry Cannibis lobbyists, including New Age health guru Dr. Andrew Weil, were singing the praises of recreational hemp--their argument apparently growing (forgive the pun) out of mankind's desire for plants such as tulips and apples.

I figure, given the time it takes to produce a PBS documentary, the network brass must have green-lighted this infomercial for the multibillion-dollar marijuana industry sometime during the Bush administration. Let's call it a triumph of product placement by "Big Dope."

Eight years after 9/11, I finally was told by PBS, and my former neighbor, what the American establishment thinks we should do to cope with a world on fire with economic collapse, Islamic revolution, and terrorism.

PBS's answer:"Let them smoke pot."

Having lived through the ghastly 1970s when so many were stoned, and having benefitted from the Reagan administration's "Just Say No" turnaround, I'm glad most of America was watching the World Series the other night. I don't want to live through another Carter administration, thank you very much...

I'm rooting for the Yankees, myself.

Matthew Hoh's Resignation Letter from US State Department in Afghanistan

From the Washington Post.

A Piano-Playing Cat on YouTube... (ht Huffington Post)

Arianna Huffington: Time for Obama to Act on Economy

From today's Huffington Post:

Meanwhile, the fundamental structural problems that led to the collapse are still not being addressed. A sense of urgency and crisis was exploited when it was useful in persuading taxpayers of the need to bail out the banks. But now that the banks are no longer in crisis -- and it's just the rest of the country that is in trouble -- the sense of urgency has faded. Because nothing says lack of urgency like "convene a conference."

Elizabeth Warren sums it up ominously: "All the things we were talking about that were serious, serious problems for the financial institutions seem to me are still serious, serious problems."

And Neel Kashkari, the former overseer of the TARP program under Bush, knows a lack of change when he sees it. "I think that the way that a Democratic administration talks about certain issues is probably a little different than the way a Republican administration does, and that's appropriate," he said. "But the substance of the actions, I think, are very consistent, and that's been important."

Important for Wall Street. And tragic for the rest of us -- both in terms of what hasn't been accomplished, and in terms of how much more misery it will lead to down the road. Misery that is avoidable -- if only Barack Obama would stop acting like a pundit, egging on change from the sideline, and start acting like the president, dictating the game from the middle of the field.


Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/barack-obama-is-doing-my_b_334631.html

Captain January (1936)

Watched it the other night, rented from Netflix. Shirley Temple has 2 Daddys! Standardized testing mocked! Buddy Ebsen dances at the Codfish Ball with Shirley Temple! A great film...which no doubt led to making Shirley Temple Black a great diplomat!

From Wikipedia
The peak of Black's diplomatic career came when she was United States Ambassador to Czechoslovakia from 1989 to 1992, and witnessed the Velvet Revolution. She commented about her Ambassadorship, "That was the best job I ever had."

Five stars.

Hillary Clinton's Unprincipled Freudian Slip...

Took place Wednesday, October 21st in a speech sponsored by the US Institute of Peace dealing with nuclear weapons. The Secretary of State declared:

Pursuing these goals is not an act of starry-eyed idealism or blind allegiance to principle. It is about taking responsibility to prevent the use of the world’s most dangerous weapons, and holding others accountable as well. The policies that take us there must be up to the task: tough, smart, and driven by the core interests of the United States. As the President has acknowledged, we might not achieve the ambition of a world without nuclear weapons in our lifetime or successive lifetimes. But we believe that pursuing this vision will enhance our national security and international stability.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's declaration to USIP reveals that she doesn't understand the meaning of the word principle.

Did any of her speechwriters consult Merriam-Webster Online?

Main Entry: prin·ci·ple
Pronunciation: \ˈprin(t)-s(ə-)pəl, -sə-bəl\
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, from Middle French principe, principle, from Old French, from Latin principium beginning, from princip-, princeps initiator — more at prince
Date: 14th century
1 a : a comprehensive and fundamental law, doctrine, or assumption b (1) : a rule or code of conduct (2) : habitual devotion to right principles (a man of principle) c : the laws or facts of nature underlying the working of an artificial device
2 : a primary source : origin
3 a : an underlying faculty or endowment (such principles of human nature as greed and curiosity) b : an ingredient (as a chemical) that exhibits or imparts a characteristic quality
4 capitalized Christian Science : a divine principle : god
— in principle : with respect to fundamentals (prepared to accept the proposition in principle)

In other words, one simply cannot have a blind obedience to principle, logically one must recognize a fundamental law, doctrine, or assumption in order to follow it. By definition, principled behavior is self-conscious, aware, enlightened...never blind. One might have a blind allegiance to prejudices, myths, superstitions, shibboleths, taboos, and even the Democratic Party--but not to a principle. By definition, a principle is antithetical to blind allegiance.

So, in this statement the Secretary of State has revealed what she thinks about matters of principle...which is what makes it a Freudian slip.

Holbrooke's Kiss of Death to NGOs

Some diplomatic doubletalk at yesterday's State Department press conference, meaning (IMHO): "So long, it's been good to know you..."

QUESTION: This is Laura Rozen from Politico. I know your team has been meeting with USAID contractors and NGOs and others in the past week to try to communicate your ideas for assistance to Pakistan. Can you talk a little bit about what you all are trying to communicate?

AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE: I’m not sure what you mean by the last week. I meet with NGOs every few days. We are the only office in this building with a full-time NGO person assigned to us who has joined us recently. He – we have a list of close to a thousand NGOs that we have now compiled and doing databasing on. NGOs are a hugely important part of this process. And the Secretary of State herself is deeply involved in outreach to the NGOs. She cares about the NGOs. I ran three NGOs myself until January 19th and have served on many boards. And so yesterday, we met with some of them. We support the NGOs.

At the same time, we’re trying to improve the operations of entities – NGOs and contract employees – who serve – who carry out part of American foreign policy in the region. And this is a very delicate balance, and some people have expressed concerns about this, but we have a very clear image of speeding up the flow of American taxpayer dollars to the people and the governments of the two countries. So if it’s a government contract, we want to speed it up.

Now, of the NGOs I met with yesterday, they all pointed out that only a certain percentage of their funds come from the U.S. Government, and that that percentage is going down. So we encourage them to work with us, and we’ll continue. And I don’t believe you’ll ever find in this building, in its past or currently, any office which spends more time with NGOs --

QUESTION: And --

AMBASSADOR HOLBROOKE: -- because it’s what we believe in. Hillary Clinton and I believe in it, and because they’re important.

Niger Election Crisis Rooted in Chinese Oil & French Uranium

From Radio France International

President Mamadou Tandja’s ruling National Movement for the Development of Society has won in Niger’s elections, according to partial results announced by the electoral commission on Friday. From results of 100 constituencies, Tandja’s party won 68.

The partial results were announced on state television by electoral commission head Moumouni Hamidou. 113 constituencies were being contested.

Opposition parties boycotted the poll and the country had been suspended from the Economic Community of West African States, following the announcement of the election.

Tandja, a 71-year-old retired colonel, called the elections to replace the parliament he dissolved in June after they refused his plans to extend his term past the 10-year limit.

On Thursday the European Union threatened to cut ties with Niger. They already froze development aid to the country, following the referendum in August, which gave him another three years in power.

“It won’t have any affect on Tandja or the politicians who are supporting him, because obviously he does not care,” Ousseina Alidou, an analyst from Rutgers University, told RFI.

Tandja claims that he needs to stay in power to ensure that projects such as a Chinese oil refinery and French uranium mine are finished.

Allan Sloan: Uncle Sam Takes From Prudent Savers, Gives to Wall Street Speculators

From today's Washington Post:

One day, the federal government won't be able to keep all these interest rates artificially low. The Chinese government, our major financier, is growing restless. The dollar's sharp decline relative to other currencies is an ominous sign. If this problem accelerates, it will put pressure on the Fed to let interest rates rise to protect the dollar from a collapse.

But until rates go up, Wall Street will be chowing down on essentially free money, while fixed-income people living off their investments will have to eat into their capital, take more risk or reduce their standard of living. A nice reward from their government for a lifetime of saving. Thanks for nothing, guys.

Human Rights Watch Founder Condemns Human Rights Watch

Organization founder Robert Bernstein finally objects to Human Right Watch's anti-Israel jihad, in today's New York Times.

Human Rights Watch has lost critical perspective on a conflict in which Israel has been repeatedly attacked by Hamas and Hezbollah, organizations that go after Israeli citizens and use their own people as human shields. These groups are supported by the government of Iran, which has openly declared its intention not just to destroy Israel but to murder Jews everywhere. This incitement to genocide is a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

Leaders of Human Rights Watch know that Hamas and Hezbollah chose to wage war from densely populated areas, deliberately transforming neighborhoods into battlefields. They know that more and better arms are flowing into both Gaza and Lebanon and are poised to strike again. And they know that this militancy continues to deprive Palestinians of any chance for the peaceful and productive life they deserve. Yet Israel, the repeated victim of aggression, faces the brunt of Human Rights Watch’s criticism.

Will Bernstein's op-ed make any difference? Or is it too little, too late?

NY Times Axing 100 Reporters

From the NY Observer (ht Eric Fettmann). Editor Bill Keller announced the layoffs by email:

I had planned to invite you to the newsroom and break this news in person today, but I've been hit by something that seems to be the flu. Though I strongly believe in delivering bad news in person, I don't want to add insult to injury by spreading infection.

Let me cut to the chase: We have been told to reduce the newsroom by 100 positions between now and the end of the year.

We hope to accomplish this by offering voluntary buyouts. On Thursday, the Company will be sending buyout offers to everyone in the newsroom. Getting a buyout package does NOT mean we want you to leave. It is simply easier to send the envelopes to everyone. If you think a buyout may be right for you, you have up to 45 days to decide whether you will accept it or not.

As before, if we do not reach 100 positions through buyouts, we will be forced to go to layoffs. I hope that won't happen, but it might.

Our colleagues in editorial and op-ed, and on the business side, also face another round of budget cuts.

In recent years, we've managed to avoid the disabling cutbacks that have hit other newsrooms. The Company has chosen to protect the journalism by cutting production and other business-side costs, and the newsroom itself has managed its resources frugally. These latest cuts will still leave us with the largest, strongest and most ambitious editorial staff of any newsroom in the country, if not the world.

I won't pretend that these staff cuts will not add to the burdens of journalists whose responsibilities have grown faster than their compensation. But we've been looking hard at ways to minimize the impact -- in part, by re-engineering some of our copy flow. I won't promise this will be easy or painless, but I believe we can weather these cuts without seriously compromising our commitment to coverage of the region, the country and the world. We will remain the single best news organization on earth.

I doubt that anyone is shocked by the fact of this, but it is happening sooner than anyone anticipated. When we took our 5 percent pay cuts, it was in the hope that this would fend off the need for more staff cuts this year. But I accept that if it's going to happen, it should be done quickly. We will get through this and move on.

In my absence, Bill Schmidt and John and Jill have volunteered to take your questions this afternoon. Feel free to bring additional questions to me as soon as I'm back, or check with Bill Schmidt or John or Jill privately, or save them for the next Throw Stuff at Bill session, which is in a couple of weeks.

We often -- and rightly -- voice our gratitude that we work for a company and a family that prize quality journalism above all. I hope you know that the company and the family, and I, feel an equal debt of gratitude to all of you whose sacrifice and loyalty have kept us strong.

Like you, I yearn for the day when we can do our jobs without looking over our shoulders for economic thunderstorms.

Bill

Chinese Film Week in Tel Aviv

While the West fixates on demonizing Israel in Switzerland through British-French acquiescence in the notorious Goldstone Report (not since the Dreyfus Affair have we heard of such an obvious calumny), this Tel Aviv film festival (reminiscent of "ping-pong diplomacy") shows China is meanwhile improving ties with the Jewish State:

TEL AVIV, Oct. 18 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Film Week opened in the Israeli port city of Tel Aviv on Sunday night with a film named "The Park" serving as the opening film.

Addressing the opening ceremony, Chinese Ambassador to Israel Zhao Jun said the Chinese film week is part of one of the biggest cultural events in Israel, noting that the culture event entitled "Experience China in Israel" is aimed to let more Israelis to know more about China.

Zhao introduced the history of China's film industry since its first motion film called "Conquering the Dream Mountain" in 1905, saying that "During the past century, Chinese film industry has developed into a complete industry."

"The cultural exchanges in the arena of film between China and Israel are increasing in the recent years," he said, adding that an Israeli film week with seven films were held in Beijing and Shanghai respectively in 2007 and last year a Chinese film week with 10 feature films were held in Israel.

"By seeing these seven films during the festival, you will have a better idea of the life and mentality of the ordinary Chinese people, and also the technical skills and conducting abilities of the Chinese film industry at present," he said.

The opening film "Park," which was produced in 2007, tells the story of an old-fashioned father and a modern daughter who can't stop hurting each other though they love each other deeply.

Other films include "A Battle of Wits," "You and Me," "A World Without thieves" and "The Silent Holy Stones."

Jointly held by the State Council Information Office of China and Israeli Foreign Ministry, the "Experience China in Israel" event is dedicated to the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and the 17th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Israel.

Happy Diwali!

From Wikipedia::

Diwali or Dīpāvali[1] (Sanskrit: दीपावलि: a row of lamps[2]) is a significant festival in Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism, and Jainism, and an official holiday in India.[3] Adherents of these religions celebrate Diwali as the Festival of Lights. They light diyas—cotton string wicks inserted in small clay pots filled with oil—to signify victory of good over the evil within an individual.