Although he is having a hard time getting through the Senate, Bolton will go to the UN, possibly as a recess appointment this July. That gives him a year to build a record. My guess is that John Bolton will do a good job, and be confirmed after a year--if he's not confirmed before July.
POLITICAL FALLOUT: If the Senate doesn't confirm Bolton soon, Republicans can make the cloture vote an equivalent of Bolton's Up or Down confirmation -- and use it in 2006 Senate campaigns against vulnerable Democrats...