The Australian on Ariel Sharon

Martin Chulov writes:

What next for Israel is a question intrinsically tied to the immediate future of the Middle East. The options for much of the Arab world are not appealing. A time of turmoil appears certain in Israel, at a juncture in the region where time cannot be spared. Gaza, the February 2005 peace summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, the formation of Kadima and the UN speech convinced a reluctant Arab world that Sharon had matured into a Jewish leader they could deal with.

There is no one of his stature waiting in the wings, except perhaps the perennial loser of Israeli elections, the 82-year-old Shimon Peres, who split from the Labor Party to follow Kadima after being cast aside by his partyroom. Peres and Sharon are the only two lions left from the Ben-Gurion days. Alongside Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak they are the last living historic political figures in the region.

But there are serious doubts that Peres, also a political turncoat, could unify the disparate band of political refugees that comprises Kadima. They were there because of one man's vision and presence. The group may retain the vision, but, without Sharon's presence, Kadima is set to crumble. It is not without irony that Sharon fell on the day Kadima was officially registered as a political party.

Neurosurgeons at the Hadassah Hospital will gradually try to wake the comatose Israeli giant to assess the damage his massive stroke caused. As they do so, many Israelis will be making amateur medical assessments of their own, such as why their prime minister was given blood-thinning medication known to be linked to cerebral haemorrhaging or why he was taken one hour away to Jerusalem, past an emergency ward much closer to his farm.

They will also want to know why surgeons waited three weeks to schedule minor surgery to correct the congenital hole in his heart. Sharon's stroke came less than 11 hours before he was due to be readmitted after the minor collapse he suffered on December 18. There is, of course, an outside chance that Sharon may make a Lazarus-like return to health. But even then, his authority to lead will have died. In its absence, the region faces upheaval, and a startling awakening.

The end of the line for Sharon has revealed a sign of the times. Stability had been brought to the Middle East not by Arab wise men, but by a Jewish warrior.